Electricity Consumption Forecast: Based on VAR and GM Combination Model

A combined forecast model is more accurate than a single forecasting model. Based on the electricity consumption data from 1978 to 2007, by combing the VAR model, the GM(1,1) model and the WGM(1,1) model, we set up the grey VAR combined forecast model and forecast the electricity consumption from 2008 to 2015. The research results show that the forecast values are accurate: the average relative error is only 4.88%, so it can be used in the application as one of the efficient methods.