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摘要:
弹道系数是非合作目标轨道预报的重要参数，对于数目庞大的非合作目标，利用有限的测控资源进行弹道系数的快速解算是空间目标监测的迫切需求。基于双行根数（TLE）的半长轴衰减信息，提出了一种改进的弹道系数解算算法。通过多项式平滑检测和二次判别，识别出野值、轨道机动和地磁暴3种情况；分析了构造半长轴衰减观测量的依据，比较了不同观测弧长对弹道系数解算的影响；利用天宫一号数据对所提算法解算的弹道系数进行精度评估，并将解算结果在天宫一号陨落预报中进行验证。结果表明：基于TLE解算的弹道系数稳定、准确，适用于非合作目标轨道预报。
Abstract:The ballistic coefficient is an important source of error in the orbit prediction of non-cooperative targets. For a large number of non-cooperative targets, calculating quickly the ballistic coefficient with the limited measurement and control resources is an urgent need. In this paper, based on the semi-major axis attenuation information of the two line element (TLE), an improved ballistic coefficient calculation algorithm is studied. Through polynomial smooth detection and quadratic discrimination, three situations, ie. outliers, orbital maneuvers and geomagnetic storms are identified. The basis for constructing semi-major axis attenuation observations is analyzed, and the influence of different observation arc lengths on the calculation of ballistic coefficients is compared. The accuracy of the ballistic coefficients is evaluated using the data of Tiangong-1, and the ballistic coefficients are used in the prediction of Tiangong-1’s reentry. The results show that the ballistic coefficients calculated based on the TLE elements are stable and accurate, and are suitable for non-cooperative target orbit prediction.
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Key words:
- non-cooperative targets /
- orbit forecast /
- two line element /
- ballistic coefficient /
- reentry prediction
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图 2 TLE星历与精密星历每日高度衰减对比
Figure 2. Comparison of daily height attenuation between TLE and precision ephemeris
图 3 TLE星历与精密星历每2日高度衰减对比
Figure 3. Comparison of every two days height attenuation between TLE and precision ephemeris
图 4 半长轴平滑值与实测值的差异（起始日期2012-01-01）
Figure 4. Difference between semi-major axis smoothed values and measured values (start date Jan. 1, 2012)
图 6 精密定轨解算弹道系数和空间环境指数
Figure 6. Ballistic coefficients solved by orbit determination and space environment index
图 7 精密定轨解算的大气阻力系数及其平滑值（起始日期2012-01-01）
Figure 7. Drag coefficients solved by orbit determination and their smoothed values (start date Jan. 1, 2012)
图 8 TLE解算的大气阻力系数（起始日期2012-01-01）
Figure 8. Drag coefficients solved by TLE (start date Jan. 1, 2012)
图 10 天宫一号TLE半长轴平滑检测结果
Figure 10. Semi-major axis smoothing test results for Tiangong-1 TLE
图 11 陨落前30 d不同观测弧段解算的弹道系数
Figure 11. Ballistic coefficients solved with different observation arcs before 30 days of reentry
图 12 使用不同弹道系数的预报误差
Figure 12. Prediction errors using different ballistic coefficients
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