Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering

Xue Yuan; Xu Haojun; Li Qiang; Hou Shifang; Liu Shijie

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533

Volume 40 Issue 8

Aug. 2014

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Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics > 2014 > 40(8): 1044-1054.

Xue Yuan, Xu Haojun, Li Qiang, et al. Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(8): 1044-1054. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533(in Chinese)

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Xue Yuan, Xu Haojun, Li Qiang, et al. Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(8): 1044-1054. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533(in Chinese)

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Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533

1. Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China;
2. Flight Test Center, AVIC Shanxi Aircraft Industry (Group) Corporation, Hanzhong 723000, China

Received Date: 23 Sep 2013
Publish Date: 20 Aug 2014

Abstract

Abstract

Under the background of increasing wake vortex problems, wake risk probability topology was built using complex human-machine-environment theory and multivariate extreme value theory. First, three-dimensional wake extreme parameters required for assessing the risk were extracted based on Monte Carlo method. And the one-dimensional extreme parameters were verified to meet generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Second, the four parameters and adaptive variable weight (FPAVW) Copula was proposed for modeling three-dimensional extreme parameters. The results of fitting test show FPAVW Copula model has higher accuracy than the other models. Third, flight risk probability in each corresponding grid node was evaluated on the basis of using Copula model to describe all the extreme values in three-dimensional wake space. Then the risk's 2D and 3D topological structures at different stages of wake vortex were analyzed. The work is an effective complement to aircraft system safety assessment theory and method, which provides reference for research directions such as wake navigation control, risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement, and environmental risks visualization. It is also suitable for comparative analysis of flight risk probabilities under different circumstances.
- wake encounter,
- Monte Carlo method,
- flight risk probability,
- multivariate extreme value theory,
- Copula model,
- risk probability topology

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References(37)

References

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Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering

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