留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

一种考虑共因失效的PMS可靠性建模分析方法

吴欢 焦健 赵廷弟

吴欢, 焦健, 赵廷弟等 . 一种考虑共因失效的PMS可靠性建模分析方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2018, 44(5): 1088-1094. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0386
引用本文: 吴欢, 焦健, 赵廷弟等 . 一种考虑共因失效的PMS可靠性建模分析方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2018, 44(5): 1088-1094. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0386
WU Huan, JIAO Jian, ZHAO Tingdiet al. A reliability modeling and analysis method for PMS considering common cause failure[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(5): 1088-1094. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0386(in Chinese)
Citation: WU Huan, JIAO Jian, ZHAO Tingdiet al. A reliability modeling and analysis method for PMS considering common cause failure[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(5): 1088-1094. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0386(in Chinese)

一种考虑共因失效的PMS可靠性建模分析方法

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0386
详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴欢  女, 硕士研究生。主要研究方向:可靠性/安全性建模、分析

    焦健  男, 博士, 讲师。主要研究方向:可靠性/安全性分析、建模、仿真等

    赵廷弟  男, 博士, 研究员, 博士生导师。主要研究方向:系统安全与可靠性工程、系统安全与可靠性设计分析与验证、安全预测与风险评价技术、复杂系统安全与可靠性理论等

    通讯作者:

    焦健, E-mail: jiaojian@buaa.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: V474.2+5

A reliability modeling and analysis method for PMS considering common cause failure

More Information
  • 摘要:

    共因失效(CCF)打破了系统内组件失效的独立性假设,会对系统特别是多阶段任务系统(PMS)的可靠性评估产生显著影响。针对多阶段任务系统中随机共因失效(PCCF)对任务可靠性的影响问题,对共因事件之间的关系进行分析,利用贝叶斯理论扩展了共因事件的概率模型,使其适用于互斥、相互独立和统计相关等多种统计关系。在此基础上提出了综合应用二元决策图(BDD)和马尔可夫(Markov)模型的模块化建模分析方法。首先,利用故障树对任务过程建模;然后,在考虑共因失效的情况下采用BDD和Markov模型分别计算系统中静态模块和动态模块;再次,由全概率公式计算任务可靠性;最后,以卫星首次转轨过程为对象,验证了方法的有效性,并通过与已有案例的对比,分析了共因失效对任务可靠性的影响。

     

  • 图 1  系统BDD模型

    Figure 1.  BDD model of system

    图 2  M1对应的的Markov模型

    Figure 2.  Markov model of M1

    表  1  组件及分系统介绍

    Table  1.   Introduction of components and subsystems

    分系统 单机 符号 简介
    姿轨控 姿态控制计算机 A AaAb共2台,冷备份
    陀螺 B BaBbBc共3台,3取2
    数字太阳敏感器 C CaCbCcCd共4台,其中仅CaCb热备份
    红外地球敏感器 D DaDb共2台,热备份
    星敏感器 E EaEbEc共3台,3取2
    推进 490 N发动机 F 1台F
    10 N推力器 G GaGb共2套,热备份
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  组件条件失效概率

    Table  2.   Conditional failure probability of components

    模块 组件 E1/10-5 E2 E3 E4/10-5 E5 E6 E7 E8
    M24 Ba4 1.086 1.086×10-5 1.086×10-5 1.086 1.086×10-5 1.086×10-5 1.086×10-5 1.086×10-5
    Bb4 1.068 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5
    Bc4 1.068 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5 1.068×10-5
    M63 Ca3 4.746 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5
    Cb3 4.746 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5 4.746×10-5
    M34 Cc4 5.478 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 5.478 0.035 4 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 0.035 4
    M44 Cd4 5.478 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 5.478 0.035 4 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 0.035 4
    M54 Ga4 1.068 0.080 6 1.068×10-5 1.068 0.080 6 0.080 6 1.068×10-5 0.080 6
    Gb4 1.068 0.080 6 1.068×10-5 1.068 0.080 6 0.080 6 1.068×10-5 0.080 6
    M73 Da3 1.891 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5
    Db3 1.891 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5 1.891×10-5
    M85 F5 1.643 1.643×10-5 0.0170 1.643 0.017 0 1.643×10-5 0.017 0 0.017 0
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  模块条件失效概率

    Table  3.   Conditional failure probability of modules

    模块 E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8
    M15 1.000×10-8 0.009 87 1.000×10-8 0.009 64 0.009 87 0.004 22 0.009 64 0.004 22
    M24 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10 3.422×10-10
    M63 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9 2.252×10-9
    M34 5.478×10-5 0.0354 5.478×10-5 5.478×10-5 0.035 4 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 0.035 4
    M44 5.478×10-5 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 5.478×10-5 0.035 4 0.035 4 5.478×10-5 0.035 4
    M54 1.141×10-10 0.006 5 1.141×10-10 1.141×10-10 0.006 5 0.006 5 1.141×10-10 0.006 5
    M73 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10 3.576×10-10
    M85 1.643×10-5 1.643×10-5 0.017 0 1.64 3×10-5 0.017 0 1.643×10-5 0.017 0 0.017 0
    下载: 导出CSV
  • [1] XING L, AMARI S V.Reliability of phased-mission systems[M].Berlin:Springer, 2008:349-368.
    [2] XING L, LEVITIN G.BDD-based reliability evaluation of phased-mission systems with internal/external common-cause failures[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2013, 112:145-153. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.12.003
    [3] WU X Y, YAN H, LI L.Numerical method for reliability analysis of phased mission system using Markov chains[J].Communication Statistics-Theory and Method, 2012, 41(21):3960-3973. doi: 10.1080/03610926.2012.697969
    [4] WU X Y, WU X Y.Extended object-oriented Petri net model for mission reliability simulation of repairable PMS with common cause failures[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, 136:109-119. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.11.012
    [5] SHRESTHA A, XING L, DAI Y.Reliability analysis of multi-state phased-mission systems with unordered and ordered states[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A:Systems and Humans, 2011, 41(4):625-636. doi: 10.1109/TSMCA.2010.2089513
    [6] LU J M, WU X Y.Reliability evaluation of generalized phased-mission systems with repairable components[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, 121:136-145. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.08.005
    [7] MO Y, XING L, AMARI S.A multiple-valued decision diagram based method for efficient reliability analysis of non-repairable phased-mission systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2014, 63(1):320-330. doi: 10.1109/TR.2014.2299497
    [8] WANG D, TRIVEDI K S.Reliability analysis of phased-mission system with independent component repairs[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2007, 56(3):540-551. doi: 10.1109/TR.2007.903268
    [9] XING L, WANG W. Probabilistic common-cause failures analysis[C]//Proceeding of the 2008 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Press, 2009: 354-358.
    [10] XING L, BODDU P, SUN Y, et al.Reliability analysis of static and dynamic fault-tolerant systems subject to probabilistic common-cause failures[J].Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2010, 224(1):43-53. http://www.mendeley.com/research/reliability-analysis-static-dynamic-faulttolerant-systems-subject-probabilistic-commoncause-failures/
    [11] WANG C, XING L, LEVITIN G.Explicit and implicit methods for probabilistic common-cause failure analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, 131(3):175-184. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832014001549
    [12] WANG C, XING L, LEVITIN G.Probabilistic common cause failures in phased-mission systems[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2015, 144:53-60. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.07.004
    [13] OU Y, DUGAN J B.Modular solution of dynamic multi-phase systems[J].IEEE Transaction on Reliability, 2004, 53(4):499-508. doi: 10.1109/TR.2004.837305
    [14] XING L, AMARI S V.Binary decision diagrams and extensions for system reliability analysis[M].Boston:John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
    [15] LI S, SI S, DUI H, et al.A novel decision diagrams extension method[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2014, 126:107-115. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.01.017
    [16] 张华, 宗益燕, 韦锡峰, 等.地球同步轨道卫星多阶段任务可靠性建模[J].航天器环境工程, 2016, 33(4):439-445. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=hthj201604019&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ

    ZHANG H, ZONG Y Y, WEI X F, et al.Phased-mission system reliability modeling of geostationary satellite based on mission profile[J].Spacecraft Environment Engineering, 2016, 33(4):439-445(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=hthj201604019&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
    [17] 朱海鹏. 基于BDD的多阶段任务系统可靠性建模分析[D]. 成都: 电子科技大学, 2010: 37-38. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10614-2010234447.htm

    ZHU H P. Reliability modeling and analysis method for PMS based on BDD[D]. Chengdu: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2010: 37-38(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10614-2010234447.htm
    [18] RAUZY A.New algorithms for fault tree analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1993, 40(3):203-211. doi: 10.1016/0951-8320(93)90060-C
  • 加载中
图(2) / 表(3)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  394
  • HTML全文浏览量:  1
  • PDF下载量:  350
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-06-07
  • 录用日期:  2017-07-13
  • 刊出日期:  2018-05-20

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回
    常见问答