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基于退化数据与故障数据的导弹竞争故障预测

丛林虎 徐廷学 王骞 董琪

丛林虎, 徐廷学, 王骞, 等 . 基于退化数据与故障数据的导弹竞争故障预测[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175
引用本文: 丛林虎, 徐廷学, 王骞, 等 . 基于退化数据与故障数据的导弹竞争故障预测[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175
CONG Linhu, XU Tingxue, WANG Qian, et al. Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175(in Chinese)
Citation: CONG Linhu, XU Tingxue, WANG Qian, et al. Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175(in Chinese)

基于退化数据与故障数据的导弹竞争故障预测

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175
基金项目: 国防预研项目(401080102)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    丛林虎 男,博士研究生。主要研究方向:装备综合保障。Tel.:0535-6635061 E-mail:342743812@qq.com;徐廷学 男,博士,教授,博士生导师。主要研究方向:装备综合保障。Tel.:0535-6635875 E-mail:xtx-yt@163.com

    通讯作者:

    徐廷学,Tel.:0535-6635875 E-mail:xtx-yt@163.com

  • 中图分类号: TJ760

Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data

Funds: National Defense Pre-Research Foundation of China (401080102)
  • 摘要: 针对具有多元退化量的导弹竞争故障预测问题,分析了导弹退化特性,并在考虑突发故障与退化故障相关性的基础上,建立了具有多元退化量的导弹竞争故障预测模型。对导弹性能退化数据与突发故障数据进行统计推断,确定了数据的分布类型,在此基础上对竞争故障预测模型的参数进行了求解。针对导弹性能退化数据分布参数存在非线性、小样本等问题,运用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)预测模型对性能退化数据的分布参数进行了预测,得到了性能退化数据未来某一时刻的分布函数;针对退化量与突发故障的相关性,应用位置-尺度模型分析了退化量与突发故障的关系,得出了突发故障与退化量的相关参数,进而根据导弹竞争故障预测模型得到了导弹未来一段时间内的竞争故障概率。以贮存状态下的整批导弹为例,实现了导弹竞争故障预测,并与其他预测方法进行了对比,结果验证了方法的合理性与有效性。

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-03-26
  • 刊出日期:  2016-03-20

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