尾流飞行风险概率拓扑图的构建方法

薛源; 徐浩军; 李强; 侯世芳; 刘仕杰

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533

尾流飞行风险概率拓扑图的构建方法

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0533

1. 空军工程大学航空航天工程学院, 西安 710038;
2. 中航工业陕西飞机工业集团有限公司飞行试验中心, 汉中 723000

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金与民航联合基金资助项目（U1333131）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（61374145）

详细信息

作者简介:
薛源（1986-），男，山东菏泽人，博士生，szxy1986@163.com.

中图分类号: V328.5;TP391.9
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- 文章访问数: 1385
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-09-23
- 网络出版日期: 2014-08-20

Topological space construction of flight risk probabilities during wake encountering

1. Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China;
2. Flight Test Center, AVIC Shanxi Aircraft Industry (Group) Corporation, Hanzhong 723000, China

摘要

摘要: 考虑尾流遭遇情形下的不确定性与随机性因素，利用蒙特卡洛法对三维空间内的每个尾流遭遇点进行大数据量的仿真实验，提取了尾流遭遇情形下的三维极值参数，验证了一维的极值参数符合广义极值（GEV）分布；提出了三维极值参数的四参数变权重Copula（FPAVW Copula）模型，拟合优度检验的结果表明FPAVW Copula具有比其他Copula更高的精度；利用FPAVW Copula对尾流场内每个网格采样点上的三维极值参数进行了辨识，计算出了尾流空间的风险概率指标分布情况；在此基础上对尾流风险概率拓扑在不同发展阶段的结构特征进行了分析，构建了可视化的二维及三维风险概率结构图，可用来研究尾流场内的风险规避策略及算法.所提方法及思路亦可对其他内外部环境因素影响下的飞行风险概率评估及拓扑结构可视化等热点研究方向提供参考.
- 遭遇尾流情形 /
- 蒙特卡洛法 /
- 飞行风险概率 /
- 多元极值理论 /
- Copula模型 /
- 风险概率拓扑
Abstract: Under the background of increasing wake vortex problems, wake risk probability topology was built using complex human-machine-environment theory and multivariate extreme value theory. First, three-dimensional wake extreme parameters required for assessing the risk were extracted based on Monte Carlo method. And the one-dimensional extreme parameters were verified to meet generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Second, the four parameters and adaptive variable weight (FPAVW) Copula was proposed for modeling three-dimensional extreme parameters. The results of fitting test show FPAVW Copula model has higher accuracy than the other models. Third, flight risk probability in each corresponding grid node was evaluated on the basis of using Copula model to describe all the extreme values in three-dimensional wake space. Then the risk's 2D and 3D topological structures at different stages of wake vortex were analyzed. The work is an effective complement to aircraft system safety assessment theory and method, which provides reference for research directions such as wake navigation control, risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement, and environmental risks visualization. It is also suitable for comparative analysis of flight risk probabilities under different circumstances.
- wake encounter /
- Monte Carlo method /
- flight risk probability /
- multivariate extreme value theory /
- Copula model /
- risk probability topology

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