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摘要:
原子钟是导航卫星最关键载荷之一, 开展原子钟健康状态评估与寿命预测相关工作, 对于及时掌握原子钟性能和运行状况, 确保卫星导航系统提供高可用性连续性完好性的服务, 具有重要意义。结合星载原子钟在轨失效特性分析, 提出了一种综合考虑原子钟随机失效与耗损失效的剩余寿命预测方法。该方法融合利用原子钟寿命周期内产生的多源多维数据, 通过概率统计和机器学习的途径实现原子钟的剩余寿命预测。经案例验证, 所提方法合理有效, 具有一定的工程应用价值。
Abstract:An atomic clock is one of the most critical loads of a navigation satellite. It is thus of great significance to carry out the work related to the health assessment and residual life prediction of atomic clocks to understand the performance and the health status of the atomic clock in time and to ensure that the satellite navigation system provides services with high availability and continuity. Based on the analysis of on-orbit failure characteristics of the atomic clock, a method for residual life prediction of the satellite atomic clock is presented in this paper. The method considers the random failure and the loss failure of the atomic clock comprehensively based on the multi-dimensional data generated in the life cycle of the atomic clock, and predicts residual life by means of probability statistics and machine learning. Case studies show that the method proposed is reasonable, effective, and applicable to engineering practices.
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Key words:
- atomic clock /
- random failure /
- loss failure /
- machine learning /
- residual life prediction
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图 1 星载原子钟在轨剩余寿命预测思路
Figure 1. On-orbit residual life prediction of satellite atomic clock
图 4 星载原子钟剩余寿命评估流程
Figure 4. Process of assessing residual life of satellite atomic clock
图 6 氢原子钟遥测数据特征提取网络结构
Figure 6. Network structure for feature extraction of hydrogen clock telemetry data
表 1 星载原子钟在轨剩余寿命预测数据类型及示例
Table 1. Data types and examples for on-orbit residual life prediction of satellite atomic clock
数据类型 数据说明 数据示例 用途 质量问题数据 本产品在轨运行阶段质量问题发生次数、发生时间 XXXX-XX-XX，1次 原子钟在轨可靠寿命预测 质量问题数据 本产品地面研制阶段质量问题发生次数、发生时间 XXXX-XX-XX，1次 原子钟在轨可靠寿命预测 质量问题数据 同类产品在轨运行阶段/地面研制阶段质量问题发生次数、
发生时间(同类产品指与评估产品技术状态一致的产品)XXXX-XX-XX，1次 原子钟在轨可靠寿命预测 地面试验数据 同批次同类产品地面可靠性/寿命试验样本个数、
试验时间、失效个数2个样本，试验4 000 h，
失效0原子钟在轨可靠寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 电离泡光强 2.5 V 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 二次谐波幅度 1.28 V 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 二极管电压 1.5 V 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 晶振压控电压 1.36 V 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 微波腔中部温度 56℃ 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 在轨遥测数据 高压源电流 0 V 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 性能评估数据 频率稳定度 10×10-5 原子钟在轨退化寿命预测 
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表 2 特征参数变化情况
Table 2. Changes of characteristic parameters
参数 第1次跳变值 第2次跳变值 正常值 二次谐波幅度/V 0 0 1.28 二极管电压/V 0 0 1.5 电离泡光强/V 0 0 2.5 高压源电流/V 1.3 0 晶振压控电压/V 0/3.92 0 1.36 微波腔中部温度/℃ 50.998
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