Bayesian evaluation method for binomial system reliability growth

Concerning the multi-stages field information during the process of product development, a Bayes evaluation method based on the new Dirichlet prior distribution was proposed. This method made use of discrete army material system analysis activity (AMSAA) model to describe the dynamic change of reliability at different stage and predicted the reliability at next stage according to the multi-stages field data during the reliability growth test (GRT). Then the new Dirichlet prior distribution was introduced and the parameter estimations were obtained by maximum entropy method. Under the conditions of gaining the field test data, the Bayesian evaluation of product reliability was obtained by the proposed method. Finally, numerical example demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed method with appropriate expert experience compared to the discrete AMSAA model and Beta prior distribution.