Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data

CONG Linhu; XU Tingxue; WANG Qian; DONG Qi

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175

Volume 42 Issue 3

Mar. 2016

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Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics > 2016 > 42(3): 522-531.

CONG Linhu, XU Tingxue, WANG Qian, et al. Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175(in Chinese)

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CONG Linhu, XU Tingxue, WANG Qian, et al. Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(3): 522-531. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175(in Chinese)

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Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0175

1.
Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, China
2. Unit 71687 of PLA, Xinxiang 453000, China

Funds: National Defense Pre-Research Foundation of China (401080102)

Received Date: 26 Mar 2015
Publish Date: 20 Mar 2016

Abstract

Abstract

Aiming at the problem of missile competing fault prediction which has multivariate degradation data, the characteristics of missile degradation are analyzed and missile competing fault prediction model which has multivariate degradation data is established considering the correlation between sudden fault and degradation fault. The distribution patterns of performance degradation data and sudden fault data are determined through statistical inference, and on this basis the parameters for competing fault prediction model are solved. Aiming at the distribution parameters of performance degradation data having the feature of small sample and nonlinearity, least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) prediction algorithm is used to predict the distribution parameters of performance degradation data in order to get the future distribution function. Aiming at the correlation between sudden fault and degradation data, the correlation parameters of sudden fault and degradation data are obtained using location-scale model to analyze the relations between sudden fault and degradation data. Furthermore, the future missile competing fault probability can be obtained according to the missile competing fault prediction model. The efficiency and validity of missile competing fault prediction model are verified by case analysis and contrasting with other prediction methods.
- competing fault,
- performance degradation,
- missile,
- least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM),
- location-scale model

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References(21)

References

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Missile competing fault prediction based on degradation data and fault data

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