| Citation: | ZHANG Fan, WEI Fajie, LI Quanbaoet al. Risk source identification of complex equipment development project[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017, 43(5): 975-980. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0368(in Chinese)
|
Complex equipment development project characters of high risk and many research units result in risk transmission in the development process. To solve the risk source identification problem, a risk source identification method was proposed based on association rule (AR) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The association rules between risk type and risk factors were solved firstly, and then the interaction of the risk sources was obtained, both with data mining method. Finally, each risk source's relevant parameters were obtained through DEMATEL. Besides, a case was analyzed and the risk sources identification was completed by AR-DEMATLE method on a stage of the data stored in the database of a research unit. The identification result shows that the risk sources corresponding to various risk types and the risk sources leading to risk transmission easily.
| [1] |
王飞, 魏法杰.大型复杂装备研发成本控制专家系统[J].北京航空航天大学学报, 2010, 36(4):490-494. http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn/CN/abstract/abstract8487.shtml
WANG F, WEI F J.Expert system on cost control for complex equipment[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2010, 36(4):490-494(in Chinese). http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn/CN/abstract/abstract8487.shtml
|
| [2] |
MOEHRLE M G, WALTER L.Risk and uncertainty in R&D management[J].R&D Management, 2008, 38(5):449-451. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9310.2008.00536.x/full
|
| [3] |
王元明.工程项目供应链风险传递[M].北京:中国电力出版社, 2012:18-20.
WANG Y M.Supply chain risk transmission in engineering project[M].Beijing:China Electric Power Press, 2012:18-20(in Chinese).
|
| [4] |
郭波, 龚时雨, 谭云涛.项目风险管理[M].北京:电子工业出版社, 2012:24-29.
GUO B, GONG S Y, TAN Y T.Project risk management[M]. Beijing:Publishing House of Electronic Idustry, 2012:24-29 (in Chinese).
|
| [5] |
李勘.武器装备研制项目风险管理研究[M].北京:国防工业出版, 2011:76-99.
LI K.Research on risk management of weapon equipment development project[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 2011:76-99(in Chinese).
|
| [6] |
RAFETERY J.Risk analysis in project management[M].London:E&FN Spon, 1994:40-60.
|
| [7] |
CARR M J, KONDA S L, MONARCH I, et al.Taxonomy-based risk identification[R].Pittsburgh, PA:Carnegie-Mellon University, 1993:7-12. doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68255-4_20
|
| [8] |
任南, 韩冰洁, 何彦昕.基于WBS-RBS-DSM的项目风险识别与评估[J].系统工程, 2014, 32(11):96-100. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-2362.2014.11.064
REN N, HAN B J, HE Y X.Project risk identification and assessment based on WBS-RBS-DSM[J].Systems Engieering, 2014, 32(11):96-100(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-2362.2014.11.064
|
| [9] |
王中原, 魏法杰.基于IFAHP—DEMATEL的军工企业法律风险识别研究[J].管理评论, 2015, 27(6):68-77. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZWGD201506008.htm
WANG Z Y, WEI F J.An analysis of identification of the legal risk in military enterprises based on IFAHP and DEMATEL[J].Management Review, 2015, 27(6):68-77(in Chinese). http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZWGD201506008.htm
|
| [10] |
张子剑. 复杂装备研制风险管理研究[D]. 天津: 天津大学, 2007: 49-72. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10056-2009071271.htm
ZHANG Z J.Research on risk management of the development of the complex equipment[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University, 2007: 49-72(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10056-2009071271.htm
|
| [11] |
许聪睿. 某型号雷达导引头研制项目风险识别与评估方法研究[D]. 北京: 中国科学院大学, 2015: 29-49. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-80090-1016003233.htm
XU C R.Risk identification and evaluation methods research of a type of radar development project[D].Beijing:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2015:29-49(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-80090-1016003233.htm
|
| [12] |
周平, 姜寿山.航空产品研制项目的风险识别特征—因子建模技术研究[J].计算机集成制造系统, 2003, 9(7):542-545. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ200307008.htm
ZHOU P, JIANG S S.Feature—Factor modeling of risk identification for aviation product development project[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2003, 9(7):542-545(in Chinese). http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JSJJ200307008.htm
|
| [13] |
HAIMES Y Y, LAMBERT J, LI D, et al.Hierarchical holographic modeling for risk identification in complex systems[C]//Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on System, Man and Cybernetics.Piscataway, NJ:IEEE Press, 1995, 2:1027-1032.
|
| [14] |
NGUYEN D, NGUYEN L T T, VO B, et al.A novel method for constrained class association rule mining[J].Information Sciences, 2015, 320(1):107-125. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020025515003643
|
| [15] |
VERYKIOS V S, PONTIKAKIS E D, THEODORIDIS Y, et al.Efficient algorithms for distortion and blocking techniques in association rule hiding[J].Distributed and Parallel Databases, 2007, 22(1):85-104. doi: 10.1007/s10619-007-7013-0
|
| [16] |
王瑛, 汪送, 管明露.复杂系统风险传递与控制[M].北京:国防工业出版社, 2015:38-41.
WANG Y, WANG S, GUAN M L.Risk transmission and risk control for complex systems[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 2015:38-41(in Chinese).
|
Figures(3) / Tables(6)
Copyright © Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Address: Editorial Department of Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing Post Code: 100191 Email: jbuaa@buaa.edu.cn
Supported by:
Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.
DownLoad:
