| Citation: | MA Xiaolei, SUN Shuo, DING Chuan, et al. A coupling analysis of multimodal transportation demands based on TVP-VAR models[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(1): 18-26. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0010(in Chinese)
|
Under the condition of multimodal travel choices in large cities, there is a close relationship of traffic demands among subway, buses and private cars. In order to explore the coupling relationship and time-varying feature among multimodal traffic demands, with road congestion index representing the traffic demands of private cars, this paper adopts the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to analyze one-month travel demands of subway, buses and road congestion index on weekdays. The empirical results of two traffic zones demonstrate that:Depending on different land use types, the relationship among subway demand, bus demand and private car demand does not significantly change in trend, but varies in time scale; In urban traffic zones, there is an interactive relationship among traffic demands of subway, buses and private cars. As subway demand increases, less passengers will switch to buses. When bus demand increases, subway demand will increase correspondingly. The increase of private car travel demand will increase the subway travel demand but reduce the bus travel demand. The research is helpful to understand the coupling relationship among different travel modes in our country at the present stage, and thus to better cope with the issue of urban traffic congestion.
| [1] |
郑雪琳, 干宏程.居民交通方式选择行为影响因素分析[J].上海理工大学学报, 2013, 35(6):563-566. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=hdgy201306010&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
ZHENG X L, GAN H C.Analysis on influencial factors of travel mode choice behavior of residents[J].Journal of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, 2013, 35(6):563-566(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=hdgy201306010&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
|
| [2] |
熊丽音, 陆锋, 陈传彬.城市多模式交通网络特征连通关系表达模型[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版), 2008, 33(4):393-396. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=whchkjdxxb200804014
XIONG L Y, LU F, CHEN C B. Connectivity model for multi-model urban transportation networks[J].Geomatics & Information Science of Wuhan University, 2008, 33(4):393-396(in Chinese). http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=whchkjdxxb200804014
|
| [3] |
LARRY J, KEYVAN F.Efficient algorithms for solving elastic demand traffic assignment problems and mode split-assignment problems[J].Transportation Science, 1981, 15(4):306-317. doi: 10.1287/trsc.15.4.306
|
| [4] |
韩印, 袁鹏程.多用户多方式混合随机交通平衡分配模型[J].交通运输工程学报, 2008, 8(1):97-101. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2008.01.019
HAN Y, YUAN P C.Multi-user and multi-mode assignment model of mixed stochastic traffic balance[J].Journal of Tra-ffic & Transportation Engineering, 2008, 8(1):97-101(in Chinese). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1671-1637.2008.01.019
|
| [5] |
王力, 王川久, 沈晓蓉, 等.基于模糊旅行时间的动态交通分配模型[J].北京航空航天大学学报, 2005, 31(10):1149-1152. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5965.2005.10.023
WANG L, WANG C J, SHEN X R, et al.Dynamic traffic assignment model based on fuzzy travel time[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2005, 31(10):1149-1152(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5965.2005.10.023
|
| [6] |
四兵锋, 杨小宝, 高亮, 等.基于出行需求的城市多模式交通配流模型[J].中国公路学报, 2010, 23(6):85-91. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=zggl201006014&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
SI B F, YANG X B, GAO L, et al.Urban multimodal traffic assignment model based on travel demand[J].China Journal of Highway & Transport, 2010, 23(6):85-91(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=zggl201006014&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
|
| [7] |
雷磊. 城市与区域一体化的出行需求分析理论与方法研究[D]. 成都: 西南交通大学, 2010. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10613-1011234247.htm
LEI L. A study on the theory and method of travel demand analysis of urban and regional integration[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2010(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10613-1011234247.htm
|
| [8] |
黄健. 含拼车的多模式交通网络配流模型及系统优化[D]. 南京: 南京大学, 2016: 18-24. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10284-1016122018.htm
HUANG J. Multi-mode traffic network assignment model and sys tem optimization for carpooling[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2016: 18-24(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10284-1016122018.htm
|
| [9] |
刘京京. 考虑距离因素的城市多模式交通配流模型[D]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2016: 13-20. http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10004-1016074191.htm
LIU J J. Multi-mode traffic assignment model considering distance factors[D]. Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University, 2016: 13-20(in Chinese). http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10004-1016074191.htm
|
| [10] |
ZHOU X, HANI S, ZHANG M.Dynamic micro-assignment modeling approach for integrated multimodal urban corridor management[J].Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies, 2008, 16(2):167-186. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2007.07.002
|
| [11] |
李靖睿.调节公交车与私家车的关系对经济发展的影响[J].现代经济信息, 2012(2):318. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=xdjz201202253&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
LI J R.Adjust the relationship between bus and private car on economic development[J].Modern Economic Information, 2012(2):318(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=xdjz201202253&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
|
| [12] |
郝忠娜, 何玉宏."新地铁时代"常规公交的扬长避短与创新优化[J].上海城市管理, 2013(2):59-62. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=cgzj201302014&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
HAO Z N, HE Y H.Pros and cons of regular traffic and transportation and innovative improvement in new metro age[J].Shanghai Urban Management, 2013(2):59-62(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=cgzj201302014&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
|
| [13] |
罗焕然.北京地铁定价的思考:基于对私家车的替代角度[J].北京市经济管理干部学院学报, 2014(2):13-18. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=bjgk201402004&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
LUO H R.A study on the metro ticket pricing in beijing-Based on the substitute for private cars[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Economics and Management, 2014(2):13-18(in Chinese). http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?filename=bjgk201402004&dbname=CJFD&dbcode=CJFQ
|
| [14] |
SIMS C A.Macroeconomics and reality[J].Econometrica, 1980, 48(1):1-48. doi: 10.2307/1912017
|
| [15] |
PRIMICERI E.Time varying structural vector auto-regressions and monetary policy[J].The Review of Economic Studies, 2005, 72(3):821-852. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x
|
| [16] |
NAKAJIMA J.Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility:An overview of methodology and empirical applications[J].Jouchi Nakajima, 2011, 29:107-142. http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/me29-6.html
|
| [17] |
王俊秀.中国汽车社会发展报告:汽车社会与规则[M]:北京:社会科学文献出版社, 2013:78-90.
WANG J X.China automotive social development report:Automotive society and rules[M].Beijing:Social Science Academic Press, 2013:78-90(in Chinese).
|
| [18] |
MICHEAL A, TAYLOR E, WOOLLEY Z.Integration of the global positioning system and geographical information systems for traffic congestion studies[J].Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies, 2000, 8(1-6):257-285. doi: 10.1016/S0968-090X(00)00015-2
|
| [19] |
RICHARDSON A, TAYLOR M.Travel time variability on commuter journeys[J].High Speed Ground Transportation Journal, 1978, 12(1):77-99. http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=80100
|
Figures(6) / Tables(4)
Copyright © Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Address: Editorial Department of Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing Post Code: 100191 Email: jbuaa@buaa.edu.cn
Supported by:
Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.
DownLoad:
