Complex equipment risk conduction analysis based on UR-MTPGERT model

Aimed at the problem of unclear description of the conduction relationship of complex equipment risks, a risk conduction uncertain random multi-transfer parameter graph evaluation and review technique (UR-MTPGERT) model is constructed. First, based on the opportunity theory, the moment function of uncertain random variables is defined, and then a multi-transter parameter UR-MTPGERT network is constructed. Second, to describe the micro-risk information of complex equipment systems, analytic parameters are introduced in the model including the degree of risk, the importance of risk primitives and the degree of relevance of risk paths. Then, when solving the moment function, the Delphi method is used to process the expert empirical data to obtain the empirical uncertainty distribution, and the maximum entropy model is used to process the random data. The probability density function is obtained. The matrix analysis technique is introduced to solve the problem of difficult network topology analysis. On this basis, the network parameters are calculated. Finally, the safety analysis of a certain type of aircraft is carried out. The results show that the model can clearly reflect the relationship between risk elements and provide reference for the risk analysis, prediction and safety control of complex equipment.