| Citation: | XU Dan, XIAO Xiaoqi, FENG Zhixinet al. Remaining life prediction method of mechanical system under uncertain loads[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2022, 48(3): 376-383. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0582(in Chinese)
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Aimed at the problem that the random working load of complex mechanical systems cannot be clearly given, a life prediction method based on hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is proposed. After completing the construction of the load space based on the HSMM, the forward and backward transition parameters and the Viterbi algorithm are introduced to solve the model parameters. The estimated parameters are used to predict the transition direction and corresponding probability of random future loads. The prediction result of the load is combined with the life prediction model based on multi-sensor information to predict the remaining life of the system. The effectiveness and correctness of the proposed method are verified by using NASA's commercial modular aero-propulsion system simulation data as a case study.
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