| Citation: | CHANG Z M，LI L Y. Double-loop surrogate model for time-dependent reliability analysis based on NARX and Kriging models[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2023，49（7）：1802-1812 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0541
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Structural systems with dynamic output performance has gained more and more attention in engineering practice. However, most existing surrogate models for estimating time-dependent reliability of such systems only consider the effect of the random variables which are acting on the system at the current moment, but ignores their effect with time-dependent accumulation. Therefore, these models cannot give an accurate prediction for time-dependent reliability of the dynamic systems. To solve this problem. this paper proposes a double-loop surrogate model method for time-dependent reliability analysis based on the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model and Kriging model. In the inner loop of the proposed method, NARX model is used to describe the variation of the output response with time under given random input variables, which can accurately simulate the dynamic behavior of the system. In the outer loop, the Kriging model of the extreme value of the dynamic systems is built based on the random input samples and the corresponding extreme values predicted by the inner NARX model. The reliability of the time-varying structure system then can be easily obtained based on the outer Kriging model. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method for reliability analysis of dynamic structural systems with fluctuating outputs is verified by three examples.
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