| Citation: | CHEN Bin, LIU Yue, LI Qingzhen, et al. Runway temperature hybrid prediction based on MFOA-KELM residual correction under ice and snow[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2022, 48(11): 2153-2164. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0646(in Chinese)
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The runway surface temperature short-term accurate prediction is one of the key factors for runway icing warning.In order to solve the problem of error accumulation caused by a single mechanistic model with increasing prediction time, a hybrid runway temperature prediction method under ice and snow is proposed.The runway temperature mechanism model is combined with the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) to develop a data-driven model for correcting the mechanism residuals. To address the problem that the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) is slow to converge (converges slowly) and easily falls into local minima. By introducing a distance expansion factor and a weight update function, it is possible to modify the effect of the FOA's search for the global optimal solution and prevent falling into local minima. The modified fruit fly optimization algorithm (MFOA) is used to jointly optimize the KELM regularization parameter and the kernel parameter. A hybrid runway temperature prediction model is developed based on the modified fruit fly optimized kernel extreme learning machine (MFOA-KELM) with the actual data of runway temperature under ice and snow. The hybrid model is simulated and tested under different time lengths. The experimental results show that compared with the single mechanism prediction model, the mean absolute error of the MFOA-KELM hybrid model is reducedby at least 61.43% when the prediction length is 120 minutes, and the average prediction accuracy is 91.25% when the residual threshold is ±0.5℃. It can be seen that the MFOA-KELM hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy. The research findings show that this hybrid prediction method can provide a new idea for short time accurate prediction of airport runway temperatures.
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