| Citation: | LIU H B，SHI X M，QU J B，et al. Design of Bayesian acceptance scheme for missile hit accuracy based on multinomial distribution[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2024，50（6）：1991-2000 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.0516
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The acceptance test of missile hit accuracy is an important step in verifying missile hit performance. Since the existing binomial distribution hit accuracy acceptance test method in GJB3400—1998 makes it difficult to describe the precision performance of the missile, the impact of the point target regions on its combat effectiveness was considered, and the hit accuracy was redefined as follows: The target was not regarded as the whole with the same damage effect but the multi-area target with different damage effects in different areas hit by the missile. In addition, the missile hit accuracy test was represented by a multinomial distribution. At the same time, the Bayesian method and the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory could be used in the acceptance test to integrate multi-source prior information, and the Bayesian acceptance scheme design method of missile hit accuracy based on multinomial distribution was proposed. The example results show that compared with the method in GJB3400—1998, this method can test the accuracy performance of missiles from multiple criteria of hitting different important areas, which is beneficial to help users obtain missiles with more reliable hit accuracy and make full use of the prior information of hit accuracy, thus effectively reducing the risk of both sides involving in the acceptance. This study can provide a reference for the identification and acceptance design of missile hit accuracy.
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