| Citation: | WU W，WU Z X，WANG X L. Research on multi-layer heterogeneous chain sequence risk propagation model in airport movement area[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，2024，50（7）：2225-2236 （in Chinese） doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0203
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A multi-layer heterogeneous network risk propagation model was built using complex network theory and the causal chain relationship between risk factors in order to better characterize the characteristics of operational risks' propagation in flight areas and improve the safety management capabilities of airport flight areas. The accident analysis mapping（AcciMap） theory was employed to analyze the causal chain of risk propagation. A three-layer heterogeneous risk propagation network was built. Evaluation indicators were designed using complex network theory to analyze the characteristics of risk network propagation. The results demonstrate that the node's risk propagation capability exhibits a weak correlation with the node degree, and the node's risk sensitivity index can enhance the accuracy of risk node ranking. Implementing risk control measures on the top 15% of nodes ranked by the risk sensitivity index can effectively reduce risk diffusion by approximately 32%. It is possible to reduce the robustness index of the network structure and move the risk network structure from a highly connected state to a loose state by controlling the top 15% of nodes ranked by the risk diffusion index. The built model enables the identification and precise control of risk diffusion processes, thereby enhancing the level of risk control in airport flight areas.
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