Radar cross section (RCS) of an aircraft is one of the important influences on aircraft survivability. A computational method for the probability that an aircraft survives hostile air-defense system consisting of early warning radar, interceptor and surface-to-air missile has been developed in this paper. The method includes calculation of the probability of detection, the probability of hit and the probability of kill. The influence of the pattern propagation factor and atmospheric loss and the influence of signal-to-noise radio on miss distance are considered in calculating the probability of detection and the probability of hit, respectively. The effect of RCS on aircraft's survivability is analyzed by the calculation. The results show that reduction of aircraft's RCS can remarkably reduce the probability of detection, and decrease the maximum intercept distance when interceptor and surface-to-air missile intercept penetrating aircraft. In order to enhance the aircraft survivability, its RCS must be reduced.