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Volume 24 Issue 1
Jan.  1998
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Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics  > 1998  >  24(1): 71-74.
Yang Jianping, Du Duanfu. Fuzzy Analysis Approach to Project Risk[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1998, 24(1): 71-74. (in Chinese)
Citation: Yang Jianping, Du Duanfu. Fuzzy Analysis Approach to Project Risk[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1998, 24(1): 71-74. (in Chinese)
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Fuzzy Analysis Approach to Project Risk

  • Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,School of Management

  • Received Date: 26 Jun 1996
  • Publish Date: 31 Jan 1998
    Abstract
  • Because there are lots of uncertain factors to influence a project,experts usually have to use some fuzzy words when they evaluate risks of a project.To evaluate quantitatively uncertainties of a project,this paper presents a new method of analyzing project risks.First,we can quantify these fuzzy words by using the fuzzy set theory,that is to say,we can express the project risks by using a kind of simple fuzzy number\_\_triangular fuzzy number;then we can judge the degree of the project risks by comparing the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the dominant project can be selected by comparing the risks of various projects.Finally,we also consider that how to quantify accurately uncertainties of a project is a very attractive problem,and we will make further researches on it.

     

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  • 1. Zadeh L.Fuzzy sets.Information and Control,1965,8:338~353 2. Zadeh L.The concept of linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning.Information Science,1974,8:199~249 3. Moore R.Interval analysis.N J:Englewood Cliffs,Prentice Hall,1966 4. Dubois D,Prade H.Ranking fuzzy number in the setting of possibility theory.Information Science,1983,30:183~224 5. Dubois D,Prade H.Fuzzy real algebra:some results.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1979,2:327~348 6. Kaufmann A,Gupta M.Fuzzy mathematical models in engineering and management science.B V North Holland:Elsevier Science Publishers,1988 7. Chang W.Ranking of fuzzy utilities with triangular membership functions.Proc Int Conf of Policy Anal & Inf Sys,1981.263~272 8. Jain R.Decision making in the presence of fuzzy variables.IEEE Trans Sys Man Cybernet,1976,6:698~703
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