Volume 39 Issue 9
Sep.  2013
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Yuan Hongjie, Zhang Ze, Wu Haoet al. Quantitative analysis method for mechanism severity of whole product[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2013, 39(9): 1208-1211. (in Chinese)
Citation: Yuan Hongjie, Zhang Ze, Wu Haoet al. Quantitative analysis method for mechanism severity of whole product[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2013, 39(9): 1208-1211. (in Chinese)

Quantitative analysis method for mechanism severity of whole product

  • Received Date: 18 Oct 2012
  • Publish Date: 30 Sep 2013
  • Due to qualitative method was used to analyze whole products with characters of complex failure mechanism and small samples, Bayesian method was proposed for quantitative analysis of failure mechanism severity. Firstly, Bayesian posterior density function was determined by prior information described by dirichlet distribution and failure data. Then full condition distribution of failure frequency and Bayesian estimation were obtained by Slice samplings and Gibbs samplings separately. Furthermore, failure mechanism severity was analyzed quantitatively. Finally, under the premise of failure mechanisms of an optical fiber connector have been analyzed clearly, the main failure mechanisms were confirmed by failure modes, mechanisms and effects analysis(FMMEA) and Bayesian method respectively. The results showed that severity of the failure mechanism which did not appeared on site was considered by Bayesian quantitative analysis method, the main failure mechanisms were more credible than the results based on FMMEA.

     

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