Bird strike risk assessment with airport avian radar data

A method that uses the real-time bird information collected by the airport-based avian radar system to assess the bird strike risk with the estimation of bird strike probability and severity was proposed. The strike probability was calculated by the prediction equation with the independent variables of the relative positions of the bird and the runway. The strike severity was estimated by the combination of the Delphi method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), called DAHP, which take full advantage of the expert knowledge and quantitative calculation. To reduce the number of parameters on the same level of the DAHP model, the influencing factors of the evaluation results were arranged in a two-level model, which could avoid the problem of inconsistency of the comparison matrix due to the high number of parameters on the same level. The assessment method was tested on the simulated data at Beijing capital international airport with three runways and the real data at Beihai Fucheng airport with one runway.