Variance-based uncertainty analysis methods of logistic support time

Uncertainty in logistics support process is present under the influence of support activities parameters. In this work, global sensitivity indicator was introduced which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. Variance-based uncertainty analysis method with the graphic evaluation and review technique(GERT) model of logistic support process duration was designed. And then, an analytic algorithm to calculate the uncertainty analysis was designed with GERT. At last, the analytic algorithm was used to analysis the aircraft support activities uncertainty analysis. Given the limited support resources, the uncertainty analytic algorithm is helpful for a decision maker to identify the most important input parameters that control the uncertainty in the model output.