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Volume 40 Issue 5
May  2014
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Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics  > 2014  >  40(5): 602-607.
Zhang Jijun, Deng Li, Ma Dengwu, et al. Remaining useful life prediction for equipment based on conditional probability of states[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(5): 602-607. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0361(in Chinese)
Citation: Zhang Jijun, Deng Li, Ma Dengwu, et al. Remaining useful life prediction for equipment based on conditional probability of states[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(5): 602-607. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0361(in Chinese)
shu

Remaining useful life prediction for equipment based on conditional probability of states

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0361

  • Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, China

  • Received Date: 25 Jun 2013
  • Publish Date: 20 May 2014
    Abstract
  • To conquer the question of uncertain factors in the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of airborne equipment, a RUL model was presented based on the conditional probability distribution of states. Firstly, the conditional probability vector of states was introduced to improve the ability of hidden Markov model (HMM) to deal with uncertainties, and its computation form was deduced. Secondly, a method was presented to approximately determine the degradation transfer time of states, thus the conditional reliability function and RUL model were obtained, in which the conditional probability vector of states was taken as the covariate. Lastly, the aero-engine temperature control amplifier was applied to validate the model. The results show that the prediction precision of this model is high, and this model can reduce the influence of uncertain factors greatly.

     

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