| Citation: | DUAN Yongsheng, ZHAO Jiguang, CHEN Peng, et al. Analysis method for hybrid uncertainty of risk considering distribution parameters dependency[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017, 43(12): 2439-2448. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0935(in Chinese)
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In view of hybrid uncertainty propagation with parameters dependency of variables in quantified risk assessment, a two-level hybrid uncertainty presentation and propagation framework considering parameters total dependency, partial dependency and independency was proposed, in which inner and outer parameters were specified with probability and possibility, and the numerical values were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy extension principle. Based on the epidemic uncertainty parameter dependency, a model with epidemic uncertainty parameters dependency and a dependency coefficient were constructed. An uncertainty propagation algorithm based on the D-S evidence theory and random set theory for parameters sampled independently was built, which, compared with the two-level Monte Carlo method presented with probability, reduced the time costs largely. Leakage rate of the hydrogen and oxygen co-bottom tank was taken as an example, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method were validated.
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