Analysis method on risk uncertainty based on variable step discrete random set

DUAN Yongsheng; ZHAO Jiguang; CHEN Peng; ZHAO Beilei; LYU Xiaolei

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0047

Volume 44 Issue 2

Feb. 2018

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Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics > 2018 > 44(2): 295-304.

ZHANG Yongde, LIANG Yi, BI Jintao, et al. Kinematics modeling and simulation of seed implantation robot for prostate tumors[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(4): 662-668. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0288(in Chinese)

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DUAN Yongsheng, ZHAO Jiguang, CHEN Peng, et al. Analysis method on risk uncertainty based on variable step discrete random set[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(2): 295-304. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0047(in Chinese)

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Analysis method on risk uncertainty based on variable step discrete random set

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0047

Equipment Development Strategy Research Institute, Equipment Academy, Beijing 101416, China

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Corresponding author: ZHAO Jiguang, E-mail:jiguang_zhao@aliyun.com
Received Date: 03 Feb 2017
Accepted Date: 17 Mar 2017
Publish Date: 20 Feb 2018

Abstract

Abstract

In view of hybrid uncertainty presentation and propagation considering the dissonance and imprecision of information in risk assessment, a hybrid uncertainty analysis method based on variable step discrete random set theory was proposed. All kinds of incomplete and dissonant knowledge was represented with random set framework, a unified hybrid uncertainty propagation model was built using random extension principle, and uncertainty envelope curvesof risk was calculated at the same time. To solve the uncertainty combination problem of dissonant and conflict informations, D-S evidence combination principle was used to merge multisource uncertainty informations. For reducing the tail relative error, a variable step discrete random set presentation strategy of uncertainty variables was proposed, and the analysis procedure of hybrid uncertainty propagation was put forward based on variable step discrete random set theory. In conclusion, a physics and phenomena response model of a mass-spring-damper system was taken to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.
- risk assessment,
- random set theory,
- D-S evidence theory,
- hybrid uncertainty,
- relative error

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References(31)

References

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