| Citation: | DONG Xiaoxiong, CHEN Yunxiang, XIANG Huachun, et al. Determination method of initial spares requirement based on SST and Bayes theory[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018, 44(2): 316-321. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0091(in Chinese)
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With the changes of use environment, the initial spares plan cannot meet the equipment support requirement when the equipment is disposed. Aimed at this situation, similarity system theory (SST) and Bayes method are introduced. According to the similarity system theory, the initial failure rate of spare parts is preliminarily determined. Then, the corresponding conjugate prior distribution is taken out based on the life distribution type in the aviation equipment which is in use. The maximum entropy method is used to calculate the maximum parameters and the Bayes theory is used to obtain posterior failure rate. Finally, the initial failure rate and posterior failure rate are combined to determine the initial demand for aviation spares. Numerical example results show that the method satisfies the requirement of practical application, which is a reliable and effective demand prediction method for the initial spares.
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