| Citation: | REN Bo, ZENG Hang, LIU Min, et al. A novel method for aviation safety prediction considering error uncertainty[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2020, 46(10): 1916-1922. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2019.0537(in Chinese)
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Accurate aviation safety prediction is of great significance for preventing accidents. At present, aviation safety prediction is mostly deterministic prediction, which ignores the influence of various uncertainties on the prediction results. Based on the traditional deterministic prediction of aviation safety point, this paper presents the prediction of aviation safety interval considering the uncertainty of error. First, through the description method of nonparametric uncertainties, aviation safety prediction error probability density function is derived. Then, the highest density domain method is applied for the most likely future value interval under a certain reliability of aviation safety, and quantitative uncertainty factors cause changes in the aviation safety prediction results. This method aims at determining that the area contains aviation safety forecast reliability, and better understanding the uncertainty and risk of those being predicted in the future change. Taking aviation safety data of civil aviation of an airline from 1994 to 2015 as an example, we predict the aviation safety using aviation safety interval prediction. The results show that the proposed method can provide aviation safety prediction curve and more accurate variation range of uncertainty, which is more conducive to modeling uncertainty of aviation safety and explaining the possibility level of aviation safety prediction results, which can provide theoretical basis for aviation safety early warning and management.
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