北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 975-980.doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0368

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

张凡, 魏法杰, 李权葆   

  1. 北京航空航天大学 经济管理学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2016-05-04 出版日期:2017-05-20 发布日期:2017-05-27
  • 通讯作者: 魏法杰,E-mail:weifajie@buaa.edu.cn E-mail:weifajie@buaa.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:张凡,女,博士研究生。主要研究方向:风险管理;魏法杰,男,教授。主要研究方向:项目管理。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71332003);国防基础科研项目(JSJC2013601C023)

Risk source identification of complex equipment development project

ZHANG Fan, WEI Fajie, LI Quanbao   

  1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2016-05-04 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-27
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (71332003);National Defense Basic Research Program (JSJC2013601C023)

摘要: 大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题,提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度,先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则,再求解出风险源之间的影响程度,最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别,识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。

关键词: 研制项目, 风险传导, 风险源识别, 关联规则(AR), 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL), WEKA

Abstract: Complex equipment development project characters of high risk and many research units result in risk transmission in the development process. To solve the risk source identification problem, a risk source identification method was proposed based on association rule (AR) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The association rules between risk type and risk factors were solved firstly, and then the interaction of the risk sources was obtained, both with data mining method. Finally, each risk source’s relevant parameters were obtained through DEMATEL. Besides, a case was analyzed and the risk sources identification was completed by AR-DEMATLE method on a stage of the data stored in the database of a research unit. The identification result shows that the risk sources corresponding to various risk types and the risk sources leading to risk transmission easily.

Key words: development project, risk transmission, risk source identification, association rule (AR), decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), WEKA

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