北京航空航天大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (11): 2039-2044.doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0139

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

具有变点的不确定竞争失效退化系统的可靠性建模

刘宝亮, 张志强, 温艳清, 康淑瑰, 张磊   

  1. 山西大同大学 数学与统计学院, 大同 037009
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-13 发布日期:2020-12-01
  • 通讯作者: 温艳清 E-mail:oryqwen@163.com
  • 作者简介:刘宝亮,男,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:可靠性理论及其应用;温艳清,女,博士,副教授。主要研究方向:可靠性理论及其应用。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71601101);山西省高等学校科技创新项目(2019L0738,2020L0463)

Reliability modeling of uncertain competing failure degradation system with a change point

LIU Baoliang, ZHANG Zhiqiang, WEN Yanqing, KANG Shugui, ZHANG Lei   

  1. College of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Shanxi Datong University, Datong 037009, China
  • Received:2020-04-13 Published:2020-12-01

摘要: 针对具有变点的竞争失效退化系统的可靠性进行了建模,系统同时遭受连续内部磨损退化和外部冲击,内部磨损退化由一个不确定过程表示,外部冲击过程是一个更新回报过程,即外部冲击到达的时间间隔和每次冲击的损坏量都是随机变量。外部环境条件的变化导致随机次数的冲击后损坏量服从的分布发生变化,通过运用不确定理论和机会理论,分别推导出系统在3种不同冲击模式下的确信可靠度公式,并通过数值算例验证了模型的正确性和有效性。

关键词: 退化系统, 竞争失效过程, 确信可靠度, 不确定过程, 刘过程

Abstract: In this paper, the reliability model of a competing failure degradation system with a change point is proposed. The system is subject to continuous internal wear degradation and external shocks, the internal wear degradation is described by an uncertain process, and the external shock is a renewal reward process, i.e., interval time of external shocks arriving the system and damage sizes of shock load are governed by different random variables. The distribution of damage sizes of shock load changes after a random number of shocks because the change of external environment condition occurs. The reliability formulas of the degradation system under three shock patterns are obtained by employing uncertainty theory and chance theory, and the correctness and effectiveness of the model are verified by a numerical example.

Key words: degradation system, competing failure processes, belief reliability, uncertain process, Liu process

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