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�������պ����ѧѧ�� 2007, Vol. 33 Issue (05) :627-630    DOI:
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�ź���, ���һ�*
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Product development two-factor risk model and simulation based on DSM
Zhang Hanpeng, Qiu Wanhua*
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China

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Abstract�� To solve the risk measurement of product development with iterations, a modeling method to evaluate the risk of schedule and cost in product development was constructed, and a simulation algorithm was given to analysis the risk of product development process. The model was constructed by two stages, rework probability matrix and rework impact matrix were firstly established based on design structure matrix(DSM), which described the relationships between schedule, cost and iteration. The evaluation model was then set up according to schedule and cost uncertainty, iteration uncertainty and the structure matrix. At the same time, the idea to decrease schedule and cost risk of product development was introduced through reducing iterations. Finally, a case was presented to illustrate the model, which indicated the model can measure product development-s schedule and cost risk, and also decrease schedule and cost risk by adopting product development sequence optimization based on DSM. This is useful to measure and control product development risk.
Keywords�� product development   design iterations   project simulation   design structure matrix   risk management     
Received 2006-06-15;


About author: �ź���(1977-),��,ɽ��������,��ʿ��,zhp@sem.buaa.edu.cn.
�ź���, ���һ�.����DSM�Ż��IJ�Ʒ���������ط��ս�ģ������[J]  �������պ����ѧѧ��, 2007,V33(05): 627-630
Zhang Hanpeng, Qiu Wanhua.Product development two-factor risk model and simulation based on DSM[J]  JOURNAL OF BEIJING UNIVERSITY OF AERONAUTICS AND A, 2007,V33(05): 627-630
http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/     ��     http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn//CN/Y2007/V33/I05/627
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