基于中国鸟情的鸟撞适航条款充分性和适宜性

陆晓华; 蔡景; 张柱国; 张迎春

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.0726

基于中国鸟情的鸟撞适航条款充分性和适宜性

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.0726

1.
南京航空航天大学民航学院，南京 211106
2.
中国民用航空上海航空器适航审定中心，上海 200335

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(U1933202)；中国民航局安全能力建设基金(2021-198)

详细信息

作者简介:
陆晓华等：基于中国鸟情的运输类飞机鸟撞适航条款充分性和适宜性分析 9

通讯作者:
E-mail：luxiaohua@nuaa.edu.cn

中图分类号: V221⁺.1；X915.1
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-08-17
- 录用日期: 2022-11-04
- 网络出版日期: 2022-12-02
- 整期出版日期: 2024-09-27

Adequacy and suitability of airworthiness clause of bird strike based on bird situation in China

1.
College of Civil Aviation，Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics，Nanjing 211106，China
2.
Shanghai Aircraft Airworthiness Certification Center of CAAC，Shanghai 200335，China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (U1933202); Safety Capacity Building Fund of CAAC (2021-198)

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail：luxiaohua@nuaa.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
以中国民航近十余年运输类飞机鸟撞信息为数据源，利用混合威布尔函数拟合鸟撞能量分布，并应用列文伯格-马夸尔特（L-M）寻优算法得到更为精确的拟合分布参数估计值。对照安全性指标，通过鸟撞能量分布函数评估出现有鸟撞适航条款对机翼而言是具有充分性和适宜性的，对尾翼而言具有充分性但过于保守。以发生灾难性事故的安全性指标为依据，中国鸟情环境下机翼结构抗鸟撞鸟体质量最低适航要求为1.218 kg；同时验证了美国联邦航空局（FAA）在美国鸟情环境下提高机翼结构抗鸟撞鸟体质量最低适航要求的愿景（约3.6 kg），证明了基于两重两参数混合威布尔分布的鸟撞冲击能量统计分析方法的有效性及结果的可信度，为中国民航自主修订相关适航条款修订提供了理论依据和实践参考。
- 鸟情环境 /
- 适航条款 /
- 鸟撞能量分布 /
- 评估 /
- 充分性 /
- 适宜性 /
- 安全性指标
Abstract:
Based on the data source of bird strike information of airplanes in transportation category from civil aviation of China in recent ten years, the mixed Weibull function was used to fit the bird strike energy distribution, and a Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M) optimization algorithm was applied to obtain more accurate estimations of fitted distribution parameters. Based on the safety index, it was sufficient and appropriate for the wing to evaluate the existing airworthiness clauses of bird strike by the bird strike energy distribution function. However, it was sufficient but too conservative for the tail. According to the safety index of catastrophic accidents, the minimum bird weight meeting the airworthiness requirement of the wing against bird strike under the bird situation in China was 1.218 kg. At the same time, the vision was verified that Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) would increase the minimum airworthiness requirement of the wing against bird strike to 3.6 kg under the bird situation in America, which partially demonstrated the validity of the methods and reliability of the results and provided a theoretical basis and practical reference for the independent revision of relevant airworthiness clauses of civil aviation of China.
- bird situation /
- airworthiness clause /
- bird strike energy distribution /
- evaluation /
- adequacy /
- suitability /
- safety index

HTML全文

图 1 鸟撞冲击能量拟合直线

Figure 1. Bird strike energy fitting line

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 鸟撞冲击能量威布尔分布拟合

Figure 2. Fitting of Weibull distribution of bird strike energy

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 飞机抗鸟撞适航条款对应的冲击能量及其概率值

Figure 3. Strike energy and its probability corresponding to airworthiness clause of aircraft against bird strike

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 基于FAA鸟击能量分布的飞机适航条款相关的冲击能量及其概率值

Figure 4. Strike energy and its probability related to aircraft airworthiness clause based on bird strike energy distribution of FAA

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 飞机机翼结构遭遇的鸟体质量与对应的风险概率

Figure 5. Weight of bird affecting aircraft wing and corresponding risk

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 飞机尾翼结构遭遇的鸟体质量与对应的风险概率

Figure 6. Weight of bird affecting aircraft tail and corresponding risk

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2种拟合分布函数的参数估计结果

Table 1. Parameter estimation values of two fitting distribution functions

估计参数	$ {p_1} $	$ {\eta} $	$ {\beta} $
两重两参数混合威布尔分布	0.3464	2204.6852 (η₁)	1 (β₁)
两重两参数混合威布尔分布		127.3463 (η₂)	1 (β₂)
一般两参数威布尔分布		542.0987	0.6011
注：η₁，η₂为η的两重参数；β₁，β₂为β的两重参数。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2种拟合分布函数的拟合优度对比

Table 2. Comparison of goodness of fit of two fitting functions

拟合优度评估指标	残差平方和SSE	均方差RMSE	判定系数R²
两重两参数混合威布尔分布	1.6133	0.0413	0.9579
一般两参数威布尔分布	6.0745	0.0802	0.9068

下载: 导出CSV

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