Optimized evaluation point designing for R&D project
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摘要: 高新工程研制过程普遍采用了并行工程的方法,虽然大幅度地缩短了工期,但是其风险较高.通过分析并行工程实施风险产生的原因,构建了并行工程实施过程的一般风险模型,指出最优决策点位于"时间-风险"关系曲线与"风险-技术成熟度"关系曲线的交汇点,给出了高新工程项目研制过程中的风险分类.提出设置有效的评审点是降低实施并行工程总体风险的可行方法,并设计了最优评审点的确定方法,利用技术风险因子、进度风险因子和并行风险因子求出各项任务风险大小,再加和求出项目整体风险.通过实例说明了评审点的最优设计可以有效降低项目的整体风险.Abstract: Having been widely adopted in the management of research and development (R&D) projects, concurrent engineering can largely shorten the time limits for projects, however, its risk is higher. A risk model of implementing concurrent engineering was built. The optimum decision point is exactly the intersection between the "risk versus technological-maturity" relation curve and the "time versus risk" relation curve, and the classification of risks in R&D projects was proposed. Setting valid evaluation point is effective to control and reduce the risks, and a method to identify the optimized evaluation points was designed. In the method, the risks of each task can be determined by technological risk factors, scheduling risk factors and parallel risk factors, and then the overall risk of the project can be determined by the summation of all the risk values. A numerical example was used to demonstrate that the overall risk of R&D projects can be effectively reduced through the optimized evaluation point designing.
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Key words:
- optimum design /
- risk /
- concurrent engineering /
- optimized evaluation point
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