基于方差的保障时间不确定性分析

吴勇; 潘星; 康锐; 马麟

基于方差的保障时间不确定性分析

北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院, 北京 100191

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（71171008）

详细信息

中图分类号: TB114.3
计量
- 文章访问数: 1241
- HTML全文浏览量: 41
- PDF下载量: 475
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-06-28
- 网络出版日期: 2013-11-30

Variance-based uncertainty analysis methods of logistic support time

School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

摘要

摘要: 装备的保障过程由于受到保障活动参数的影响存在着较大的不确定性.针对保障过程的不确定性问题，建立了基于方差的保障活动不确定性重要度作为保障过程全局敏感性分析指标；根据保障过程工期的GERT（Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique）模型，设计了一种基于方差的保障时间不确定分析方法来计算保障活动的时间不确定性重要度，并对该方法进行解析求解，给出了具体步骤.最后，将舰载机航空保障作为案例，验证了方法的有效性.
- 保障过程工期 /
- 全局敏感性分析 /
- 不确定性分析 /
- 图示评审技术
Abstract: Uncertainty in logistics support process is present under the influence of support activities parameters. In this work, global sensitivity indicator was introduced which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. Variance-based uncertainty analysis method with the graphic evaluation and review technique(GERT) model of logistic support process duration was designed. And then, an analytic algorithm to calculate the uncertainty analysis was designed with GERT. At last, the analytic algorithm was used to analysis the aircraft support activities uncertainty analysis. Given the limited support resources, the uncertainty analytic algorithm is helpful for a decision maker to identify the most important input parameters that control the uncertainty in the model output.
- logistic support process duration /
- global sensitivity analysis /
- uncertainty analysis /
- GERT

HTML全文

参考文献(19)

[1]	王学望, 康锐, 张侦英, 等.任务驱动的保障活动时间优化[J].计算机集成制造系统, 2010, 16 (10):2227-2232 Wang Xuewang, Kang Rui, Zhang Zhenying, et al.Task driven support activity time optimization[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2010, 16 (10):2227-2232 (in Chinese)
[2]	Apostolakis G E.How useful is quantitative risk assessment [J] Risk Analysis, 2004, 24 (3):515-520
[3]	文佳, 康锐, 刘瑞, 等.基于保障活动流程的保障设备需求量计算模型[J].系统工程与电子技术, 2010, 32 (09):1903-1906 Wen Jia, Kang Rui, Liu Rui, et al.Quantitative forecast model of support equipment based on support activity flow[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2010, 32 (09):1903-1906 (in Chinese)
[4]	王雷.装备战场抢修时间计划研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院, 2010 Wang Lei.Research on time schedule plan for battle field damage assessment and repair[D].Changsha:School of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, 2010 (in Chinese)
[5]	Qiao Liu, Toshimitsu Homma.A new computational method of a moment-independent uncertainty importance measure[J] Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009, 94 (1):1205-1211
[6]	Campolongo F, Tarantola S, Saltelli A.Tackling quantitatively large dimensionality problems[J].Computer Physics Communications, 1999, 117 (2):75-85
[7]	Morris M D.Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments[J].Technometrics, 1991, 33 (2):161-174
[8]	Saltelli A, Tarantola S, Campolongo F.Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modeling[J].Statistical Science, 2000, 15 (4):377-395
[9]	Saltelli A.Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment[J].Risk Analysis, 2002, 22 (3):579-590
[10]	Helton J C, Davis F J, Johnson J D.A comparison of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with random and Latin hypercube sampling[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2005, 89 (3):305-330
[11]	Patelli E, Pradlwarter H J, Schuёller G I.Global sensitivity of structural variability by random sampling[J].Computer Physics Communications, 2010, 181 (12):2072-2081
[12]	Borgonovo E.A new uncertainty importance measure[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2007, 92 (6):771-784
[13]	Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara T A.Random balance design for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2006, 91 (6):717-727
[14]	Homma T, Tomita K, Hato S.Uncertainty and sensitivity studies with the probabilistic accident consequence assessment code OSCAAR[J].Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2005, 37 (3):245-257
[15]	冯强, 曾声奎, 康锐.基于MAS的舰载机动态调度模型[J].航空学报, 2009, 30 (11):2119-2125 Feng Qiang, Zeng Shengkui, Kang Rui.A MAS-based model for dynamic scheduling of carrier aircraft[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2009, 30 (11):2119-2125 (in Chinese)
[16]	Pritsker A A B.GERT graphical evaluation and review technique[M].Santa Monica, CAL, USA:Rand Corporation, 1966
[17]	Whitehouse G E.Systems analysis and design using network techniques[M].Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey:Prentice-Hall, 1973:243-250
[18]	Jewel A.Sortie generation capacity of embarked airwings.ADA359178, 1998
[19]	Jewell A, Wiggle M A, Gagnon C M, et al.USS nimitz and carrier airwing nine surge emonstration[R].ADA362472, 1998