Model design of project risk assessment based on cloud theory
-
摘要: 针对工程项目的特点和项目风险定量评估任务,提出了基于云判别模型的风险评估方法.云理论是一种用于处理不确定性和含糊性知识的数学工具,可实现概念与数据之间的相互转换.在云理论的基础上,建立了综合能力模型以及风险评估云模型,提出了基于云理论项目工程风险评估的方法,解决了风险评估中定性语言到定量的转化问题.该方法通过分析项目生命周期中的具体风险与风险因素之间的因果关系,建立项目工程风险评价模型,拓展了在国内经济转轨时期项目工程风险模型的研究思路,并结合应用实例评价该方法对建立工程内部风险评价体系的应用价值.Abstract: A risk evaluation method based on the cloud theory was put forward for evaluating project risk quantitatively. Cloud theory was proved to be an excellent mathematical tool for dealing with uncertain and vague description of objects, and it can realize the transforms between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expression . Based on the cloud theory, the system performance model and the cloud model of the risk assessment were proposed .A new way for project risk assessment was given and it can solve the transition problem between qualitative and quantitative in risk assessment. The project risk model was constructed by analyzing the causal relation between risk and risk factors, and the research way of project risk model was expanded in our country of a period of economy, and the applied value of the system of risk assessment was illustrated by practical application.
-
Key words:
- cloud theory /
- credit risk evaluation /
- credit risk model
-
[1] Nikander I O,Eloranta E. Project management by early warnings[J]. International Journal of Management,2004(19):385-399 [2] Kanas A.Neural network linear forecasts for stock returns[J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics,2005(6):245-254 [3] 李德毅,孟海军,史雪梅. 隶属云和隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995,32(6):15-20 Li Deyi, Meng Haijun, Shi Xuemei. Membership clouds and membership cloud generators [J].Computer R&D,1995,32(6):15-20(in Chinese) [4] Yang B,Li ling X.An early warning for loan risk assessment using artificial neural networks[J].Knowledge-Based System,2005(14):303-306 [5] 王颖.基于云理论的企业市场竞争定位模糊识别[J]. 电子科技大学学报, 2004,33(3):322-326 Wang Ying. Fuzzy pattern recognition of company market competition orientation based on clouds theory [J]. Journal of UEST of China,2004,33(3):322-326(in Chinese) [6] Cythia B. Using discriminant analysis to predict financial distress[J]. International Advances in Economics Research, 2000(6): 591-593 [7] 方洪全,曾勇. 运用多元判别法评估企业信用风险的实例[J].预测,2004,23(4):65-68 Fang Hongquan,Zeng Yong.Example of multivariate discriminate analysis in credit risk evaluation of enterprise [J].Forcasting,2004,23(4):65-68(in Chinese)
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 2836
- HTML全文浏览量: 188
- PDF下载量: 839
- 被引次数: 0