Product development two-factor risk model and simulation based on DSM
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摘要: 针对存在迭代现象的产品开发过程的风险综合测量问题,建立了风险分析模型,并给出了相应的仿真算法.该模型分2个阶段构建,首先在传统设计结构矩阵理论基础上,构建了返工概率矩阵和返工冲击矩阵,由此描述产品开发过程中的进度和成本与迭代的关系;然后根据初始进度和成本不确定性、迭代的不确定性以及构建的结构矩阵,给出了产品开发风险评估模型.同时,利用传统设计结构矩阵优化理论,提出了通过减少迭代降低进度和成本风险的思路.利用仿真实例阐明,该模型能够测量产品开发进度和成本风险,同时能够利用设计结构矩阵优化开发顺序,从而降低产品开发风险,这为测量和控制产品开发项目综合风险提供了科学的依据.Abstract: To solve the risk measurement of product development with iterations, a modeling method to evaluate the risk of schedule and cost in product development was constructed, and a simulation algorithm was given to analysis the risk of product development process. The model was constructed by two stages, rework probability matrix and rework impact matrix were firstly established based on design structure matrix(DSM), which described the relationships between schedule, cost and iteration. The evaluation model was then set up according to schedule and cost uncertainty, iteration uncertainty and the structure matrix. At the same time, the idea to decrease schedule and cost risk of product development was introduced through reducing iterations. Finally, a case was presented to illustrate the model, which indicated the model can measure product development-s schedule and cost risk, and also decrease schedule and cost risk by adopting product development sequence optimization based on DSM. This is useful to measure and control product development risk.
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Key words:
- product development /
- design iterations /
- project simulation /
- design structure matrix /
- risk management
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