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知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法

郝志鹏 曾声奎 郭健彬 马纪明 李齐林

郝志鹏, 曾声奎, 郭健彬, 等 . 知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
引用本文: 郝志鹏, 曾声奎, 郭健彬, 等 . 知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
HAO Zhipeng, ZENG Shengkui, GUO Jianbin, et al. Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029(in Chinese)
Citation: HAO Zhipeng, ZENG Shengkui, GUO Jianbin, et al. Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(1): 101-111. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029(in Chinese)

知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模方法

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0029
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(61304218)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    郝志鹏男,博士研究生。主要研究方向:可靠性与性能一体化设计、可靠性评估等。Tel.:010-82338403E-mail:haozhipeng@buaa.edu.cn;曾声奎男,博士,教授。主要研究方向:可靠性综合设计与仿真、可靠性与性能一体化设计、人机系统可靠性分析、计算机辅助可靠性工程等。Tel.:010-82314731E-mail:zengshengkui@buaa.edu.cn;郭健彬男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:系统可靠性设计分析、机电产品可靠性仿真、RMS综合集成平台、多学科设计优化。Tel.:010-82333839E-mail:guojianbin@buaa.edu.cn;马纪明男,博士,讲师。主要研究方向:机电系统性能与可靠性一体化设计方法、机电系统多学科设计优化方法、控制系统可靠性分析方法、随机作用下的系统响应特性分析。Tel.:010-82339761E-mail:jiming.ma@buaa.edu.cn;李齐林男,硕士,工程师。主要研究方向:机电系统性能与可靠性一体化设计方法、机电系统多学科设计优化方法。

    通讯作者:

    曾声奎,Tel.:010-82314731E-mail:zengshengkui@buaa.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: V24;TB114.3

Integrated method of knowledge and data for quantitative reliability modeling

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China(61304218)
  • 摘要: 可靠性定量设计的关键是建立可靠性定量模型。现有的可靠性定量模型建模方法主要基于设计人员对产品对象故障规律的知识,包括故障模式、环境扰动、故障机理等。但知识固有的有限性和不完整性必然会给可靠性定量模型带来模型误差和输入参数的不确定性。针对这个问题,提出了基于贝叶斯理论融合知识和数据的可靠性定量模型建模方法,量化并更新模型误差和输入参数的不确定性。为此,首先说明了知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模工作,建立了知识与数据融合的可靠性定量模型建模框架;接着阐述了基于贝叶斯理论的知识与数据融合原理;然后介绍了基于贝叶斯理论融合知识与数据的通用方法,并分别针对性能波动数据和性能退化数据2种常见数据类型进一步详细讨论了各自适用的贝叶斯融合方法;最后通过机载轴向柱塞泵的案例验证了前述方法的可行性和有效性。

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-01-15
  • 刊出日期:  2016-01-20

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