Effectiveness evaluation for single helicopter forest firefighting training based on ANP
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摘要:
现有的直升机单机森林灭火训练效能评估方法仅针对取水灭火过程，忽视了其他任务环节对训练效能的贡献，并假设指标间相互独立，因此导致评估指标体系不全面、指标权重分配不合理，评估结果的可靠性低。利用离散事件系统建模理论建立的事件活动流将直升机单机森林灭火训练任务分解成若干相关活动，活动映射法对各活动效能要素进行分析并转化为效能评估指标，最终构建出全面的两维度效能评估指标体系；网络分析法（ANP）的使用考虑了评估指标间具有的依赖和相关关系，对指标权重进行重新合理分配，评估方法更符合问题的实际情况，评估结果更加可信。基于超级决策（SD）软件的案例分析表明，所提出的效能评估方法具有工程应用的可行性和参考价值。
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关键词:
- 直升机森林灭火训练 /
- 效能评估 /
- 事件活动流 /
- 活动映射 /
- 网络分析法 (ANP)
Abstract:Existing effectiveness evaluation methods for single helicopter forest firefighting training only aim at process of firefighting and getting water, ignore contributions of other processes during task to the training effectiveness, and assume mutual independence of indexes, which leads to incomplete evaluation index system, unreasonable distribution of indexes' weights and low reliability of evaluating results. The event-activity flow established by using theory of discrete event system modeling divides the task of single helicopter forest firefighting training into several related activities; the method mapping from activities analyzes elements of activities' effectiveness, transforms them into effectiveness evaluation indexes, and finally establishes all-sided two-dimensional effectiveness evaluation index system; with the dependency and relationship between evaluation indexes considered, the use of analytic network process (ANP) reallocates the weights of indexes reasonably, making evaluation method more suitable for actual situation of the problem and results of evaluation more reliable. The analysis of a case based on Super Decisions (SD) indicates that the proposed effectiveness evaluation method possesses feasibility and reference value in engineering applications.
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图 7 指标或指标簇的优势度和一致性检验结果
Figure 7. Superiority degree and consistency check results of indexes or index clusters
图 9 M、N机组时间维训练效能对比
Figure 9. Comparison of training effectiveness between unit M and N in time dimension
图 10 M、N机组层次维训练效能对比
Figure 10. Comparison of training effectiveness between unit M and N in hierarchy dimension
表 1 各事件和活动的内容
Table 1. Content of each event and activity
事件Ei 事件内容 活动Ai 活动内容 E1 火灾发生 A1 火情上报 E2 火灾应急预案响应 A2 灭火指令传达 E3 直升机组接受任务 A3 灭火任务规划 E4 任务规划完成 A4 灭火设备检查 E5 设备检查完成 A5 机组前往水源取水 E6 取水完成 A6 空中洒水 E7 判断火场是否扑灭 A7 检查当前燃油量 E8 判断是否补充燃油 A8 返回机场补充燃油 E9 燃油补充完成 A9 机组返航 E10 任务结束 
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表 2 专家系统信息
Table 2. Information of expert system
序号 专家信息 专家权重 1 领域专家 0.83 2 领域专家 0.78 3 博士研究生 0.68 4 博士研究生 0.66 5 硕士研究生 0.55
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表 3 简化的指标关联度矩阵
Table 3. Simplified correlation matrix of indexes
指标 γi, j I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 I6 I7 I8 I9 I1 — 0 0 0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0 0 I2 0 — 0 0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0 0 I3 0 0 — 0 0.6 0.7 0.9 0 0 I4 0 0 0 — 0.7 0.8 0.8 0 0 I5 0 0 0 0 — 0 0 0 0 I6 0 0 0 0 0 — 0 0 0 I7 0 0 0 0 0 0 — 0 0 I8 0 0 0 0 0.9 0.8 0.8 — 0 I9 0 0 0 0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0 —
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表 4 各指标的稳定权重
Table 4. Stable weights of each index
指标簇 指标 稳定权重 任务规划 任务规划耗时 0.061 任务规划最优度 0.177 设备检查 设备检查耗时 0.046 设备检查可靠性 0.091 灭火 灭火比例 0.081 灭火成本效率 0.081 灭火耗时 0.071 灭火策略合理性 0.234 火情判断准确度 0.158
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表 5 各效能指标原始数据
Table 5. Raw data of each effectiveness index
机组代号 M N 任务规划耗时/min 0.9 1.5 任务规划最优度 中 良 设备检查耗时/min 0.6 0.5 设备检查可靠性 优 优 灭火比例 0.618 0.721 灭火成本效率 0.812 0.578 灭火耗时/min 7.6 9.5 灭火策略合理性 良 优 火情判断准确度 良 良
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