复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

张凡; 魏法杰; 李权葆

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0368

复杂装备研制项目的风险源识别

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2016.0368

北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 71332003

国防基础科研项目 JSJC2013601C023

详细信息

作者简介:
张凡, 女, 博士研究生。主要研究方向:风险管理

魏法杰，男，教授。主要研究方向：项目管理

通讯作者:
魏法杰, E-mail:weifajie@buaa.edu.cn

中图分类号: F270.7
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-05-04
- 录用日期: 2016-12-02
- 网络出版日期: 2017-05-20

Risk source identification of complex equipment development project

School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100083, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71332003

National Defense Basic Research Program JSJC2013601C023

More Information

Corresponding author: WEI Fajie, E-mail:weifajie@buaa.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
大型复杂装备研制项目高风险与参研单位多的特点使得研制过程中风险传导时有发生。针对风险传导要素风险源的识别问题，提出了一种基于关联规则(AR)与决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)的风险源识别方法。该方法从数据挖掘的角度，先求解出风险类型与风险因素的关联规则，再求解出风险源之间的影响程度，最后通过DEMATEL得到各风险源相关参数。并且对某参研单位数据库中某阶段的数据用此方法完成了风险源的识别，识别结果显示了各风险类型对应的风险源以及易导致研制项目发生风险传导的风险源。
- 研制项目 /
- 风险传导 /
- 风险源识别 /
- 关联规则(AR) /
- 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL) /
- WEKA
Abstract:
Complex equipment development project characters of high risk and many research units result in risk transmission in the development process. To solve the risk source identification problem, a risk source identification method was proposed based on association rule (AR) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). The association rules between risk type and risk factors were solved firstly, and then the interaction of the risk sources was obtained, both with data mining method. Finally, each risk source's relevant parameters were obtained through DEMATEL. Besides, a case was analyzed and the risk sources identification was completed by AR-DEMATLE method on a stage of the data stored in the database of a research unit. The identification result shows that the risk sources corresponding to various risk types and the risk sources leading to risk transmission easily.
- development project /
- risk transmission /
- risk source identification /
- association rule (AR) /
- decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) /
- WEKA

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图 1 风险源识别原理与流程图

Figure 1. Risk source identification principle and flowchart

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图 2 风险类型与风险因素关联规则

(supp：0.01，conf：0.06)

Figure 2. Association rules of risk type and risk factors

(supp:0.01, conf:0.06)

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图 3 风险源原因-结果图

Figure 3. Risk source cause-result chart

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表 1 风险类型与风险因素的关系(a)

Table 1. Relationship between risk type and risk factor (a)

		风险因素			风险类型
B₁			…	B_m	A_n
	B₂	B₃	…		A₂
B₁		B₃			A₁
			…		…

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表 2 风险类型与风险因素的关系(b)

Table 2. Relationship between risk type and risk factor (b)

风险因素	风险类型
B₁	A_n
	A_n
B_m	A_n

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表 3 风险源

Table 3. Risk source

风险类型	研发风险	质量风险	服务风险
风险源	技术工艺标准化人员素质设计更改	技术工艺	原材料价格拖期交付退货返修响应不及时

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表 4 风险源相关系数矩阵C

Table 4. Risk source correlation coefficient matrix C

风险源	C
风险源	B₁	B₂	B₃	B₅	B₇	B₈	B₁₂	B₁₃	B₁₄
B₁	1	0.23	0.36	0	0.19	0	0.24	0.43	0.01
B₂	0.21	1	0.32	0	0.27	0	0.04	0.12	0.01
B₃	0.02	0.02	1	0	0.18	0.12	0.01	0.01	0
B₅	0.37	0.29	0.06	1	0.22	0	0.02	0.02	0.30
B₇	0.34	0.13	0.04	0	1	0	0.41	0.03	0.03
B₈	0.02	0.01	0.01	0	0.05	1	0.03	0.01	0.02
B₁₂	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	0.02	0.22
B₁₃	0.16	0.17	0	0	0.05	0.04	0.39	1	0.25
B₁₄	0	0	0	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.01	1

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表 5 风险源综合影响矩阵T

Table 5. Risk source comprehensive influence matrix T

风险源	T
风险源	B₁	B₂	B₃	B₅	B₇	B₈	B₁₂	B₁₃	B₁₄
B₁	0.64	0.50	0.62	0.01	0.59	0.17	0.97	0.59	0.53
B₂	0.52	0.44	0.53	0	0.52	0.14	0.75	0.45	0.37
B₃	0.17	0.13	0.21	0	0.19	0.08	0.26	0.13	0.12
B₅	0.76	0.60	0.70	0.08	0.71	0.17	1	0.62	0.58
B₇	0.47	0.36	0.43	0	0.46	0.11	0.74	0.40	0.39
B₈	0.07	0.05	0.06	0	0.07	0.09	0.11	0.06	0.06
B₁₂	0.02	0.01	0.01	0	0.02	0.02	0.11	0.02	0.10
B₁₃	0.33	0.28	0.30	0.01	0.30	0.10	0.59	0.35	0.38
B₁₄	0.02	0.02	0.02	0	0.02	0.01	0.05	0.02	0.10

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表 6 DEMATEL方法计算结果

Table 6. Computational results of DEMATEL method

风险源	影响度	被影响度	中心度	原因度	中心度排序	属性
B₁	4.62	3.01	7.63	1.61	1	原因因素
B₂	3.74	2.41	6.15	1.33	3	原因因素
B₃	1.29	2.90	4.19	-1.71	7	结果因素
B₅	5.24	0.11	5.35	5.13	4	原因因素
B₇	3.38	2.90	6.28	0.48	2	原因因素
B₈	0.57	0.89	1.46	-0.32	9	结果因素
B₁₂	0.32	4.58	4.90	-4.26	6	结果因素
B₁₃	2.66	2.65	5.31	0.01	5	原因因素
B₁₄	0.28	2.65	2.83	-2.37	8	结果因素

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