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摘要:
针对低空自由飞行航线自主的特点，提出了一种概率型的短期冲突探测算法。算法考虑导航误差、控制误差及风扰动引起的飞行器位置预测误差，建立了合理的误差模型，以计算短期内飞行器之间的瞬时冲突概率；采用坐标变换以及扩展冲突区域，提出了三维空间内机动飞行情况下，计算冲突概率的近似解析算法。通过与Paielli和Erzberger（P&E）提出的近似算法及Monte Carlo仿真算法的比较，表明本文算法提高了计算冲突概率的准确性，且计算复杂性远远低于Monte Carlo算法，满足低空自由飞行的实时性要求，可实现复杂环境下的冲突探测。
Abstract:Considering the autonomous route of free flight in low-altitude airspace, a probabilistic short-term conflict detection algorithm is proposed. The trajectory prediction error caused by navigation error, control error and wind disturbance was taken into account. A reasonable error model was constructed to compute the conflict probability between aircraft in the short term. By using coordinate transformation and extending the conflict zone, an approximate analytical expression was presented to estimate the conflict probability of maneuvering flight in three-dimensional airspace. By comparison with Paielli and Erzberger (P&E) approximation algorithm and the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm, the presented algorithm was proved to increase the accuracy of conflict probability estimation and decrease the computational consumption. The result shows that this algorithm can reach the real-time requirement of free flight in low-altitude airspace and realize the conflict detection in complex environment.
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Key words:
- free flight /
- trajectory prediction /
- conflict detection /
- conflict probability /
- Brownian motion
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图 1 低空自由飞行的保护区
Figure 1. Protection zone of aircraft for free flight in low-altitude airspace
图 2 二维平面冲突概率计算示意图
Figure 2. Schematic diagram of calculation of conflict probability in two-dimensional plane
图 3 三维空间冲突概率计算示意图
Figure 3. Schematic diagram of calculation of conflict probability in three-dimensional airspace
图 5 二维情况转弯机动飞行结果比较
Figure 5. Result comparison of turning maneuver flight in two-dimensional case
图 6 三维情况爬升转弯机动飞行结果比较
Figure 6. Result comparison of climbing turning maneuver flight in three-dimensional case
表 1 3种算法计算时间比较
Table 1. Computation time comparison among three algorithms
算法 计算时间/ms 直线相向飞行 转弯机动飞行 三维机动飞行 Monte Carlo仿真算法 7.039×103 7.039×103 1.047×104 P&E近似算法 0.06 0.48 本文算法 2.58 2.58 3.72 
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