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摘要:
随着使用环境的变化，研制阶段制定的初始备件方案常常无法满足装备部署部队后的保障要求。针对该情况，引入了相似系统理论（SST）和Bayes方法，根据相似系统理论初步确定备件的初始失效率，依据装备在使用中的寿命分布类型，取出对应的共轭先验分布，利用最大熵方法求取超参数，运用Bayes理论得到后验失效率，综合初始失效率和后验失效率确定初始备件需求。算例结果表明该方法满足实际应用要求，是初始备件需求预测可靠而有效的方法。
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关键词:
- 初始备件 /
- 相似系统理论(SST) /
- Bayes /
- 需求 /
- 失效率
Abstract:With the changes of use environment, the initial spares plan cannot meet the equipment support requirement when the equipment is disposed. Aimed at this situation, similarity system theory (SST) and Bayes method are introduced. According to the similarity system theory, the initial failure rate of spare parts is preliminarily determined. Then, the corresponding conjugate prior distribution is taken out based on the life distribution type in the aviation equipment which is in use. The maximum entropy method is used to calculate the maximum parameters and the Bayes theory is used to obtain posterior failure rate. Finally, the initial failure rate and posterior failure rate are combined to determine the initial demand for aviation spares. Numerical example results show that the method satisfies the requirement of practical application, which is a reliable and effective demand prediction method for the initial spares.
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Key words:
- initial spares /
- similarity system theory (SST) /
- Bayes /
- requirement /
- failure rate
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表 1 常用的先验分布及其共轭分布
Table 1. Commonly-used prior distribution and its conjugate distribution
先验分布(参数) 共轭分布 Binomial(π) Beta Exponential(λ) Gamma Gamma(λ) Gamma Multinomial(π) Dirichlet Multivariate Normal(μ，Σ) Normal Inverse Wishart Negative Binomial(π) Beta Normal(μ，σ已知) Normal Normal(σ，μ已知) Inverse Gamma Normal(μ，σ) Normal Inverse Gamma Pareto(β) Gamma Poisson(λ) Gamma Uniform(0, β) Pareto 
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表 2 SSRU1备件相似性分析
Table 2. Spare parts similarity analysis of SSRU1
失效率影响因素 使用环境 使用强度 使命任务 结构 材料 功能 保障人员 保障计划 特征权数β1 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.1 0.1 相似元相似度q(ui)s 0.98 0.91 0.95 0.94 0.85 0.95 0.88 0.91 注：失效率相似度为0.93。
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表 3 统计数据及预计值
Table 3. Statistical data and expected value
设备名称 老产品的M/h 相似度 预计的M/h λ/10-4 备注 SSRU1 1 192.8 0.93 1 800 5.56 选用新型号，可靠性大大提高 SSRU2 6 262 0.92 6 262 1.60 选用老产品 SSRU3 2 087.3 0.86 2 087.3 4.79 选用老产品 SSRU4 863.7 0.89 863.7 11.6 选用老产品 SSRU5 6 000 0.91 6 500 1.54 在老产品的基础上，局部改进 SSRU6 15 530 0.93 15 530 0.644 选用老产品 SSRU7 6 520 0.85 7 000 1.43 在老产品的基础上，局部改进 SSRU8 1 578.2 0.88 2 400 4.17 选用新型号，可靠性大大提高 SSRU9 3 400 0.94 3 400 2.94 选用老产品 LLRU 253.3 292.05 3.42
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