基于效用价值驱动的旅客出行动力学研究与建模

邢志伟; 文涛; 罗谦; 丛婉; 魏志强; 廖必凯

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0144

基于效用价值驱动的旅客出行动力学研究与建模

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2017.0144

邢志伟^{1, 2},
文涛^{1, 2},
罗谦^{2, 3, ,},
丛婉^{1, 2},
魏志强^{1, 2},
廖必凯^{2, 3}

1.
中国民航大学电子信息与自动化学院, 天津 300300
2.
中国民用航空总局第二研究所, 成都 610041
3.
民航成都电子技术有限责任公司, 成都 611430

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 U1533203

国家自然科学基金 U1333122

四川省科技支撑计划 2016GZ0068

成都市战略性新兴产品研发补贴项目 2015-CP01-00158-GX

详细信息

作者简介:
邢志伟男, 博士, 教授。主要研究方向:民航智能规划与调度、民航装备与系统

文涛男, 硕士研究生。主要研究方向:机场运行与控制工程

罗谦男, 博士, 研究员。主要研究方向:机场运营管理、民航智能规划与调度

丛婉女, 硕士研究生。主要研究方向:通信工程、电子信息

魏志强男, 硕士研究生。主要研究方向:机场运行与控制工程

廖必凯男, 学士, 高级工程师。主要研究方向:机场工程、机场运营与管理

通讯作者:
罗谦, E-mail:luoqian@caacetc.com

中图分类号: U491.1⁺22
计量
- 文章访问数: 774
- HTML全文浏览量: 193
- PDF下载量: 950
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2017-03-13
- 录用日期: 2017-06-09
- 网络出版日期: 2018-02-20

Utility value driven passenger travel dynamic study and modeling

XING Zhiwei^{1, 2},
WEN Tao^{1, 2},
LUO Qian^{2, 3
, ,},
CONG Wan^{1, 2},
WEI Zhiqiang^{1, 2},
LIAO Bikai^{2, 3}

1.
Electronic Information and Automation Institute, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
2.
The Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation Administration of China, Chengdu 610041, China
3.
Civil Aviation Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611430, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China U1533203

National Natural Science Foundation of China U1333122

Science and Technology Support Program of Sichuan Province 2016GZ0068

Strategic Emerging Product R & D Subsidy Project of Chengdu 2015-CP01-00158-GX

More Information

Corresponding author: LUO Qian, E-mail:luoqian@caacetc.com

摘要

摘要:
为了探究交通体系中旅客出行行为的特征与机理，以某机场离港旅客的陆侧出行数据为研究对象，对旅客出行模式进行了统计。分析发现，旅客聚集行为具有强烈的阵发性，不同出行维度旅客群体的聚集时间间隔分布具有幂律特征，且幂指数和阵发性强度呈正相关关系。同时，研究认为旅客出行换乘决策是综合时间、费用、便捷舒适度、突发情况等多因素的期望实现，是一种基于效用价值驱动的人类行为。基于此构建了效用价值驱动模式下的旅客出行行为动力学模型，可输出幂指数为参数可调的幂律分布，且仿真输出和实证数据分析结果相吻合。
- 人类动力学 /
- 时间间隔分布 /
- 出行行为 /
- 效用价值驱动 /
- 换乘决策
Abstract:
In order to explore the characteristics and mechanism of passenger travel behavior in the traffic system, the statistical analysis of the passenger travel pattern is studied based on the actual airport departure of the landside passenger travel data. It is found that the behavior of passenger gathering has strong paroxysmal feature, the interval time distribution about different passenger groups has a power-law characteristic, and the power is proportional to the intensity of paroxysmal feature. Meanwhile, passenger traveling transfer decision-making is a kind of utility value driven human behavior considering many factors such as time, cost, convenience and comfort, and emergency. Accordingly, a utility value driven travel behavior dynamic model is proposed, from which power-law distribution with an adjustable power exponent can be obtained. The simulation results of the dynamic model are consistent with the analysis results of empirical data.
- human dynamics /
- interval time distribution /
- travel behavior /
- utility value driven /
- transfer decision

HTML全文

图 1 不同旅客群体的聚集时间间隔分布

Figure 1. Gathering time interval distribution of different passenger groups

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 旅客群体聚集间隔时间特性

Figure 2. Gathering interval time characteristics of passenger groups

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 各维度旅客群体聚集时间间隔仿真

Figure 3. Simulation of gathering time interval of passenger groups in each dimension

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 ACI服务质量调查问卷统计

Table 1. Service quality questionnaire statistics of ACI

问卷编号	性别	年龄组	航班编号	起飞时间	是否转机	出行目的	乘坐舱位	交通工具	提前抵达时间/h
1	男	26~34岁	HU7717	2016-01-20 16:05	是	商务	经济舱	缺失	1.25~1.50
2	男	26~34岁	CZ6443	2016-01-19 06:35	否	休闲	经济舱	私家车/公务专车	1.5~20
3	男	26~34岁	HO1112	2016-01-19 11:15	否	商务	经济舱	私家车/公务专车	0.75~100


下载: 导出CSV

表 2 不同旅客群体出行统计

Table 2. Travel statistics for different passenger groups

出行方式	旅客人数	出行目的	旅客人数
巴士	193	休闲	210
出租车	228	商务	325
私家车	199	其他	171
轨道交通	73
其他	13
总计	706	总计	706

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 离港旅客提前抵达时间统计

Table 3. Early arrival time statistics of departure passengers

提前抵达时间/h	旅客人数
< 0.5	17
0.50~0.75	62
0.75~1.00	146
1.00~1.25	151
1.25~1.50	67
1.50~2.00	141
>2	122

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 模型参数设定与输出

Table 4. Parameter setting and output of model

出行维度	费用		时间		便捷舒适度		ξ	输出幂指数	拟合幂指数
出行维度	α₁	M	α₂	T	α₃	C	ξ	输出幂指数	拟合幂指数
小汽车	0.1	1	0.4	0.5	0.5	1	0.3	-1.516	-1.523
巴士	0.7	0.3	0.1	1	0.2	0.5	0.3	-1.333	-1.323
轨道交通	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.1	-1.131	-1.124
商务	0.1	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.2	-1.371	-1.362
休闲	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.9	0.2	0.4	0.3	-1.286	-1.292

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(19)

[1]	WU S F, YUN M P, YANG X G, et al. The travel choice behavior with traffic state information[C]//International Conference on Transportation Engineering, 2015: 2121-2126.
[2]	刘大龙, 田琼.信息提供下的公交管制策略[J].北京航空航天大学学报, 2015, 41(3):502-508. http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn/CN/abstract/abstract13194.shtml LIU D L, TIAN Q.Regulation strategies on the public transit system with information provision[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2015, 41(3):502-508(in Chinese). http://bhxb.buaa.edu.cn/CN/abstract/abstract13194.shtml
[3]	WRIGHT M, GOMES G, HOROWITZ R, et al.On node and route choice models for high-dimensional road networks[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological, 2017, 105:212-234. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2017.09.001
[4]	ZHANG M S, HUI F, GANG H. Modeling of evacuation route choice behavior considering traffic information[C]//Intelligent Control and Automation. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Press, 2015: 5534-5538.
[5]	JIANG B, YIN J, ZHAO S.Characterizing the human mobility pattern in a large street network[J].Physical Review E, Statistical Nonlinear & Soft Matter Physics, 2009, 80(1):1711-1715. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Bin_Jiang3/publication/26858844_Characterizing_the_Human_Mobility_Pattern_in_a_Large_Street_Network/links/54d5220e0cf25013d02a8f0d/Characterizing-the-Human-Mobility-Pattern-in-a-Large-Street-Network.pdf
[6]	LIANG X, ZHENG X, LV W, et al.The scaling of human mobility by taxis is exponential[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications, 2011, 391(5):2135-2144. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:5:p:2135-2144
[7]	PENG C, JIN X, WONG K C, et al.Collective human mobility pattern from taxi trips in urban area[J].PLoS One, 2012, 7(4):e34487. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0034487
[8]	ROTH C, KANG S M, BATTY M, et al.Structure of urban movements:Polycentric activity and entangled hierarchical flows[J].PLoS One, 2010, 6(1):e15923. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PLoSO...615923R
[9]	王明生, 黄琳, 闫小勇.探索城市公交客流移动模式[J].电子科技大学学报, 2012, 41(1):2-7. http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dzkjdxxb201201002.aspx WANG M S, HUANG L, YAN X Y.Exploring the mobility patterns of public transport passengers[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2012, 41(1):2-7(in Chinese). http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_dzkjdxxb201201002.aspx
[10]	VAZQUE A.Impact of memory on human dynamics[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications, 2007, 373(36):747-752. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437106004808
[11]	焦玉, 刘衍珩, 王健, 等.基于习惯的人类动力学建模[J].科学通报, 2010, 55(11):1070-1076. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/94252X/201011/33776644.html JIAO Y, LIU Y H, WANG J, et al.Model for human dynamics based on habit[J].Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(11):1070-1076(in Chinese). http://www.cqvip.com/QK/94252X/201011/33776644.html
[12]	SHANG M S, CHEN G X, DAI S X, et al.Interest-driven model for human dynamics[J].Chinese Physics Letters, 2010, 27(4):48701-48703. doi: 10.1088/0256-307X/27/4/048701
[13]	符丁, 李明江, 黎路.基于价值驱动的人类行为动力学实证研究和建模[J].电子科技大学学报, 2015, 44(5):652-656. http://industry.wanfangdata.com.cn/yj/Detail/Periodical?id=Periodical_dzkjdxxb201505003 FU D, LI M J, LI L.Empirical study and modeling of human behaviour dynamics based on the value-driven[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2015, 44(5):652-656(in Chinese). http://industry.wanfangdata.com.cn/yj/Detail/Periodical?id=Periodical_dzkjdxxb201505003
[14]	STARNINI M, BARONCHELLI A, PASTORSATORRSA R.Modeling human dynamics of face-to-face interaction networks[J].Physical Review Letters, 2013, 110(16):1-9.
[15]	赵金楼, 成俊会, 刘家国.兴趣、习惯、交互三重驱动的微博用户动力学模型[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报, 2015, 36(9):1292-1296. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-HEBG201509025.htm ZHAO J L, CHENG J H, LIU J G.Microblog users' dynamic model driven by interest, habit, and interaction[J].Journal of Harbin Engineering University, 2015, 36(9):1292-1296(in Chinese). http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-HEBG201509025.htm
[16]	GOH K I, BARABASI A L.Burstiness and memory in complex systems[J].Physics, 2006, 81(4):48002. https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0610233.pdf
[17]	周涛.在线电影点播中的人类动力学模式[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2008, 5(1):1-5. http://www.docin.com/p-15624433.html ZHOU T.Human activity pattern on on-line movie watching[J].Complex Systems & Complexity Science, 2008, 5(1):1-5(in Chinese). http://www.docin.com/p-15624433.html
[18]	邢志伟, 冯文星, 罗谦, 等.基于航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型[J].电子科技大学学报, 2015, 44(5):719-724. http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=dzkjdxxb201505015 XING Z W, FENG W X, LUO Q, et al.Arrived passenger model in single flight based on the time of departure[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2015, 44(5):719-724(in Chinese). http://www.wanfangdata.com.cn/details/detail.do?_type=perio&id=dzkjdxxb201505015
[19]	钱堃, 唐继孟, 张素燕, 等.城市轨道交通在机场枢纽集疏运体系中的竞争力分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息, 2014, 14(3):168-173. https://www.wenkuxiazai.com/doc/d5761795a8956bec0875e362-3.html QIAN K, TANG J M, ZHANG S Y, et al.Competitiveness analysis of urban rail transit in airport access system[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering & Information Technology, 2014, 14(3):168-173(in Chinese). https://www.wenkuxiazai.com/doc/d5761795a8956bec0875e362-3.html