军航无人机与民航航班侧向碰撞风险评估

李琦; 甘旭升; 孙静娟; 王明华

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0030

军航无人机与民航航班侧向碰撞风险评估

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0030

1.
西京学院, 西安 710123
2.
空军工程大学空管领航学院, 西安 710051

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 11726624

详细信息

作者简介:
李琦  男, 硕士, 讲师。主要研究方向: 管理科学与工程

甘旭升  男, 博士, 副教授, 硕士生导师。主要研究方向: 航空管制

孙静娟  女, 博士, 讲师。主要研究方向: 航空管制

王明华  女, 博士, 讲师。主要研究方向: 航空管制

通讯作者:
甘旭升. E-mail: gxsh15934896556@qq.com

中图分类号: V328.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-01-21
- 录用日期: 2020-05-22
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-20

Risk assessment of lateral collision between military UAV and civil aviation flight

1.
Xijing University, Xi'an 710123, China
2.
Air Traffic Control and Navigation College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710051, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 11726624

More Information

Corresponding author: GAN Xusheng. E-mail: gxsh15934896556@qq.com

摘要

摘要:
近年来无人机(UAV)已经成为新型作战力量。为解决军航UAV与民航航班之间的飞行冲突，确保飞行安全，对经典EVENT模型进行改进，提出适用于UAV的碰撞风险模型。着重研究了导航方式、人为因素、高空风对于UAV飞行的影响，并构建了相应的位置偏差模型。首先，利用蒙特卡罗法求解军航UAV与民航航班之间侧向间隔丢失的频率；其次，利用MATLAB进行算例仿真，验证模型的有效性，并得出了侧向碰撞概率随参数变化的关系；最后，通过计算不同安全间隔下的碰撞风险，对空域使用提出建议。
- 无人机(UAV) /
- 碰撞风险 /
- EVENT模型 /
- 蒙特卡罗法 /
- 风险评估
Abstract:
In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has become a new combat force. In order to solve the flight conflict between military UAV and civil aviation and ensure flight safety, this paper improves the classic EVENT model and proposes a collision risk model suitable for UAV. The influence of navigation mode, human factors and high-altitude wind on UAV flight is emphatically studied, and the corresponding position deviation model is constructed. Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the loss frequency of lateral interval between military UAV and civil aviation flight. MATLAB is used for example simulation to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the relationship between the lateral collision probability and the parameters is obtained. By calculating the collision risk at different safety intervals, some suggestions on the use of airspace are put forward.
- Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) /
- risk of collision /
- EVENT model /
- Monte Carlo method /
- risk assessment

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图 1 模型示意图

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of model

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图 2 军民航航线示意图

Figure 2. Schematic diagram of military and civil aviation routes

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图 3 动作起点示意图

Figure 3. Schematic diagram of starting point of action

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图 4 军航无人机位置偏差示意图

Figure 4. Schematic diagram of military aviation UAV position deviation

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图 5 民航航班位置偏差示意图

Figure 5. Schematic diagram of civil aviation flight position deviation

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图 6 军民航位置偏差示意图

Figure 6. Schematic diagram of military and civil aviation position deviation

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图 7 碰撞风险图

Figure 7. Collision risk

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表 1 用户等效距离误差

Table 1. User equivalent distance error

所属单元	误差源	导航系统误差/m
空间部分	卫星时钟稳定性	3.0
	卫星扰动可确定性	1.0
	选择可用性(SA)	32.3
	其他	0.5
控制部分	星历预计误差	4.2
控制部分	其他(推力性能等)	0.9
用户部分	电离层延迟	5.0
	对流层延迟	1.5
	接收机噪声	1.5
	多路径误差	2.5
	其他	0.5
系统UERE	总的误差(均方根)	33.3

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表 2 侧向碰撞风险模型所需参数值

Table 2. Required parameter values of lateral collision risk model

参数	数值	参数	数值
λ_jx/m	22.7	E(S)	0.61
λ_jy/m	14.2	v/(m·s^-1)	240
λ_jz/m	4.1	σ_v	15
λ_hx/m	72.8	σ_γ	2
λ_hy/m	79.8	σ_x	66.6
λ_hz/m	24.1	P_z(0)	0.5
β	0.034	L/km	10
U_x/(m·s^-1)	129	U_y/(m·s^-1)	262
U_z/(m·s^-1)	5	w/(m·s^－1)	0.58

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表 3 不同起点碰撞风险表

Table 3. Collision risk with different starting points

起点	碰撞风险/(次·飞行小时^-1)
S₁	7.36×10^-11
S₂	6.84×10^-11
S₃	5.37×10^-11
S₄	3.21×10^-11
S₅	4.43×10^-10
S₆	3.16×10^-10
S₇	2.86×10^-10
S₈	9.46×10^-11

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表 4 不同间隔下碰撞风险表

Table 4. Collision risk at different intervals

安全间隔/km	碰撞风险/(次·飞行小时^-1)
10	7.36×10^-11
9	3.42×10^-11
8	4.32×10^-10
7	3.47×10^-9
6	6.43×10^-9

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