风偏差对火箭最大气动载荷精度的影响

程胡华; 李娟; 肖云清; 沈洪标; 赵亮

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0358

风偏差对火箭最大气动载荷精度的影响

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2020.0358

程胡华¹,
李娟²,
肖云清^{3, 4, ,},
沈洪标⁵,
赵亮⁶

1.
中国人民解放军 63729部队, 太原 030027
2.
中国人民解放军 61741部队, 北京 100094
3.
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室, 银川 750013
4.
银川市气象局, 银川 750011
5.
中国人民解放军 32018部队, 北京 100094
6.
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029

基金项目:

中国科学院战略性先导科技专项 XDA17010105

详细信息

通讯作者:
肖云清, E-mail: xiaoyunqing00@163.com

中图分类号: V411.8
计量
- 文章访问数: 564
- HTML全文浏览量: 102
- PDF下载量: 50
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-07-24
- 录用日期: 2021-01-08
- 网络出版日期: 2021-10-20

Influence of wind deviation on rocket maximum aerodynamic load accuracy

1.
Unit 63729 of PLA, Taiyuan 030027, China
2.
Unit 61741 of PLA, Beijing 100094, China
3.
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750013, China
4.
Yinchuan Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750011, China
5.
Unit 32018 of PLA, Beijing 100094, China
6.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Funds:

Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences XDA17010105

More Information

Corresponding author: XIAO Yunqing, E-mail: xiaoyunqing00@163.com

摘要

摘要:
高空风的预报精度对运载火箭的飞行安全有重要影响，主要表现在对运载火箭飞行中的最大气动载荷的精度影响。以某地区实况风为基准，分析了高空风预报值产生的风偏差对火箭最大气动载荷参数精度的影响。结果表明：最大气动载荷预报值的精度随高空风预报时效延长而降低，其相对误差从第1天的5.68%增长到第11天的26.49%；且最大气动载荷预报值精度与季节有关，该预报精度在秋季最高，春季最低。研究结果在火箭发射的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。
- 运载火箭 /
- 风偏差 /
- 最大气动载荷预报值 /
- 精度特征 /
- 季节
Abstract:
The prediction accuracy of upper wind has an important impact on the flight safety of launch vehicle, which is mainly manifested in the impact on the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. Based on wind field from sounding data in a region, the influence of wind deviation caused by upper wind forecast on the accuracy of rocket maximum aerodynamic load is analyzed. It is found that the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast is significantly reduced with the extension of the upper wind forecast time. The relative error increases from 5.68% on the first day to 26.49% on the 11th day; the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast is related to the season, with the highest forecast accuracy in autumn and the lowest in spring. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.
- launch vehicle /
- wind deviation /
- maximum aerodynamic load forecast /
- accuracy characteristics /
- seasons

HTML全文

图 1 预报风与实况风之间的纬向风差异随预报日数变化特征

Figure 1. Zonal wind difference between forecast wind and real wind varies with the number of forecast days

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 预报风与实况风之间的经向风差异随预报日数变化特征

Figure 2. Meridional wind difference between forecast wind and real wind varies with the number of forecast days

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 qα_max^F与qα_max^R之间的差异随预报日数变化特征

Figure 3. Difference between qα_max^F and qα_max^R varies with the number of forecast days

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 不同季节qα_max^F与qα_max^R之间的差异随预报日数变化特征

Figure 4. Difference between qα_max^F and qα_max^R in different seasons varies with the number of forecast days

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 qα_max偏差在不同区间范围内的占有率随预报日数变化特征

Figure 5. Variation characteristics of occupancy rate of qα_max deviation in different intervals with the number of forecast days

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

参考文献(16)

[1]	李效明, 许北辰, 陈存芸. 一种运载火箭减载控制工程方法[J]. 上海航天, 2004, 21(6): 7-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-1630.2004.06.002 LI X M, XU B C, CHEN C Y. An engineering method on the control of decreasing load for a launch vehicle[J]. Aerospace Shanghai, 2004, 21(6): 7-14(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-1630.2004.06.002
[2]	廖沫, 张平, 陈宗基. 运载火箭载荷主动减缓控制律的设计与仿真[J]. 计算机仿真, 2006, 23(1): 54-58. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9348.2006.01.017 LIAO M, ZHANG P, CHEN Z J. Design and simulation of active load-reducing control law of launch vehicle[J]. Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2006, 23(1): 54-58(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9348.2006.01.017
[3]	宋征宇. 运载火箭飞行减载控制技术[J]. 航天控制, 2013, 31(5): 3-8. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3242.2013.05.001 SONG Z Y. Load control technology in launch vehicle[J]. Aerospace Control, 2013, 31(5): 3-8(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3242.2013.05.001
[4]	耿光有, 李东. 由火箭一级飞行弹道分析底部力等动力参数[J]. 导弹与航天运载技术, 2014, 335(5): 10-13. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DDYH201405003.htm GENG G Y, LI D. Analysis of dynamic parameters such as base-force for 1st stage of a launch vehicle via the trajectory[J]. Missiles and Space Vehicles, 2014, 335(5): 10-13(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DDYH201405003.htm
[5]	杨伟奇, 许志, 唐硕, 等. 基于自抗扰的运载火箭主动减载控制技术[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2016, 42(1): 130-137. doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0051 YANG W Q, XU Z, TANG S, et al. Active disturbance rejection control method on load relief system for launch vehicles[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016, 42(1): 130-137(in Chinese). doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2015.0051
[6]	周毅, 候志明, 刘宇迪. 数值天气预报基础[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2003: 1-23. ZHOU Y, HOU Z M, LIU Y D. Fundamentals of numerical weather forecast[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2003: 1-23.
[7]	HOUTEKAMER P L, LEFAIVRE L, DEROME J, et al. A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1996, 124(6): 1225-1242. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<1225:ASSATE>2.0.CO;2
[8]	井立红, 高婧, 赵忠, 等. 数值预报模式在新疆塔城地区降水预报中的检验[J]. 干旱气象, 2017, 35(1): 134-141. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GSQX201701018.htm JING L H, GAO J, ZHAO Z, et al. Test and comparative analysis on precipitation forecast based on serveral numerical forecast models in Tacheng of Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2017, 35(1): 134-141(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GSQX201701018.htm
[9]	LORENZ E N. A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model[J]. Tellus, 1965, 17(3): 321-333. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v17i3.9076
[10]	LORENZ E N. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model[J]. Tellus, 1982, 34(6): 505-513. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v34i6.10836
[11]	陈超君, 王东海, 李国平, 等. 冬季高海拔复杂地形下GRAPES-Meso要素预报的检验评估[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(6): 657-668. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201206004.htm CHEN C J, WANG D H, LI G P, et al. A study of the GRAPES-Meso prediction verification for high altitude and complex terrain during winter time[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(6): 657-668(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201206004.htm
[12]	张宁娜, 黄阁, 吴曼丽, 等. 2010年国内外3种数值预报在东北地区的预报检验[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2012, 28(2): 28-33. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2012.02.006 ZHANG N N, HUANG G, WU M L, et al. Contrastive verification of three numerical prediction products in the northeast of China in 2010[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(2): 28-33(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2012.02.006
[13]	潘留杰, 张宏芳, 朱伟军, 等. ECMWF模式对东北半球气象要素场预报能力的检验[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2013, 18(1): 111-123. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH201301013.htm PAN L J, ZHANG H F, ZHU W J, et al. Forecast performance verification of the ECMWF model over the northeast hemisphere[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(1): 111-123(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH201301013.htm
[14]	万瑜, 曹兴, 窦新英, 等. ECMWF细网格数值预报产品在乌鲁木齐东南大风预报中的释用[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2014, 8(1): 32-38. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJQX201401008.htm WAN Y, CAO X, DOU X Y, et al. The application of ECMWF refined net numerical forecast data in the southeast gale in Urumqi[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2014, 8(1): 32-38(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-XJQX201401008.htm
[15]	荀学义, 孟雪峰, 王学强, 等. T639和EC模式对内蒙古主要天气系统的预报性能检验[J]. 气象科技, 2014, 42(5): 832-838. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2014.05.020 XUN X Y, MENG X F, WANG X Q, et al. Verification and assessment of forecasting performance of general circulation systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC model products[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2014, 42(5): 832-838(in Chinese). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2014.05.020
[16]	尹姗, 任宏昌. 2017年9-11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J]. 气象, 2018, 44(2): 326-333. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201802013.htm YIN S, REN H C. Performance verification of medium-range forecasting by T639, ECMWF and Japan models from September to November 2017[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2018, 44(2): 326-333(in Chinese). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201802013.htm