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摘要:
随着航空网络运输量与日俱增，机场间运行呈现出较强耦合关联。机场风险传播特性严重制约航空网络安全高效运行。目前机场运行风险量化计算及在航空网络的传播机理尚缺乏深入研究。综合考虑安全、效率等风险要素基于聚类算法提出机场运行风险耦合量化方法；构造机场运行风险时间序列，应用因果检验方法并基于复杂网络构建机场运行风险传播网络；通过对比不同类型网络，分析机场运行风险传播网络特征，挖掘机场运行风险传播规律。结果表明：风险传播网络度分布满足双区对数分布特点，呈现小世界特征，不仅具有较短的网络直径和较高的社区性，而且可被分为若干连接密集区域，且风险传播网络效率较低，表明在全局传播的难度较高。
Abstract:Aviation network traffic has increased day by day, and operations between airports are closely coupled. Airport risk diffusion has grown to be a major issue that affects their ability to operate safely and effectively. However, the spread mechanism of airport risk at the network level has not yet been fully understood. This paper first proposes an airport risk coupling quantification method based on clustering algorithm and taking into account multiple risk factors, then constructs risk time series and applies causality testing methods to construct airport risk propagation network in order to better study the mechanism of airport risk propagation at the network level. By comparing the performance of different types of networks, analyzing the characteristics of risk propagation networks, and studying the overall characteristics and laws of risk propagation. The findings demonstrate that the degree distribution of the risk propagation network meets the requirements for dual-zone logarithmic distribution, exhibits small-world properties, has a small network width and high community, and can be separated into a number of densely connected areas. The low network efficiency of the risk propagation network indicates that it is more difficult for the risk to spread globally.
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Key words:
- aviation network /
- risk coupling /
- Granger causality test /
- risk propagation /
- complex network
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图 2 2019年3月2日整体风险传播网络视图
Figure 2. General risk propagation network view for 2 March 2019
图 3 风险传播网络的出、入度分布
Figure 3. Out-degree and in-degree distribution of risk propagation network
表 1 风险传播网络的基本属性
Table 1. Basic attributes of risk propagation network
网络 节点数 边数 平均出入度 网络密度 平均聚类系数 最大连通子图 互异性 网络直径 社区性 网络效率 风险传播网络 223 2772 12.43 0.06 0.11 160 0.04 3 0.23 0.31 随机网络 223 2772 12.43 0.06 0.06 223 0.02 3 0.17 0.55 航线网络 223 1656 14.85 0.07 0.51 179 1 4 0.14 0.33 
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