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基于DW-MEE的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警

潘丹 罗帆 李永周 肖琴 张攀科 徐瑞华

潘丹,罗帆,李永周,等. 基于DW-MEE的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报,2023,49(4):780-791 doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0707
引用本文: 潘丹,罗帆,李永周,等. 基于DW-MEE的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报,2023,49(4):780-791 doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0707
PAN D,LUO F,LI Y Z,et al. Airport safety risk early warning under circumstance of non-suspend air construction based on DW-MEE[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2023,49(4):780-791 (in Chinese) doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0707
Citation: PAN D,LUO F,LI Y Z,et al. Airport safety risk early warning under circumstance of non-suspend air construction based on DW-MEE[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2023,49(4):780-791 (in Chinese) doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0707

基于DW-MEE的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2021.0707
基金项目: 湖北省教育厅科学技术研究计划重点项目(D20201104);湖北省社会科学基金一般项目(2021200);河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022CSH031);河南工程学院博士培育基金项目(D2022035)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    潘丹等:基于动态权和物元可拓的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警

    通讯作者:

    E-mail:sailluof@126.com

  • 中图分类号: X93. 4; V951

Airport safety risk early warning under circumstance of non-suspend air construction based on DW-MEE

Funds: Key Project of Science and Technology Research of Education Department in Hubei Province (D20201104); General Project of Social Science Foundation in Hubei Province (2021200); Annual Project of Philosophy and Social Science Planning in Henan Province (2022CSH031); The Doctor Fundation Project of Henan University of Engineering (D2022035)
More Information
  • 摘要:

    为开展不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警,集成了动态权和物元可拓分析法(DW-MEE),构建风险预警模型。通过历史事故分析、文献及规章制度分析、专家访谈的方式初步构建不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警指标体系,采用德尔菲法筛选出33个指标。将不停航施工情境下机场综合安全风险警情和单指标警情分成无警、轻警、中警、重警4个等级。构建基于动态权和物元可拓分析法的动态预警模型。结果表明:10个样本机场,1个机场处于红色重警状态,3个机场处于黄色轻警状态,6个机场处于绿色无警状态。飞行员的情境意识、业务技能水平、机场不停航施工安全监管能力3个指标对综合警情影响最敏感,施工对地勤工作的影响、不停航施工应急预案的科学性、供电设备的维护保养情况3个指标对综合警情影响最不敏感。

     

  • 图 1  指标警情增加时指标权重的变化

    Figure 1.  Changes of indexes weight when index alarm of different schemes increases

    表  1  不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警指标

    Table  1.   Airport safety risk early warning indexes under circumstance of non-suspend air construction

    风险类别风险指标指标来源指标性质加权算数
    平均值
    满分频率/%变异
    系数
    是否
    保留
    人员
    风险
    C1地勤人员的安全知识水平专家访谈、文献[27]8.97300.0737保留
    地勤人员的业务技能水平专家访谈、文献[27]8.52200.1059删除
    C2飞行员的情境意识历史事故分析、文献[2]9.71300.0229保留
    C3飞行员的业务技能水平专家访谈、文献[27]9.56300.0316保留
    C4飞行员的经验专家访谈、文献[27]9.42300.0411保留
    C5空管人员的情境意识文献[2,27]9.13300.0616保留
    C6施工人员的安全知识水平文献[4-5,26]8.70300.0955保留
    施工人员的业务技能水平文献[4,27]7.86100.1392删除
    C7施工人员不停航施工经验文献[5,27]8.27300.1331保留
    设备设施
    风险
    C8关闭跑道、滑行道标志清晰程度文献[24,26]8.99300.0725保留
    C9施工设备和人员进出场路线的清晰程度历史事故分析、文献[1,26]等8.85300.0838保留
    C10施工设备设施摆放的合理性文献[1,26]8.99300.0725保留
    C11施工围挡设施设置的合规程度文献[1,8,26]等8.99300.0725保留
    C12施工区域围界线的清晰程度文献[1,8,25]等8.85300.0838保留
    C13目视助航设备的维护保养情况专家访谈、文献[27]8.13300.1465保留
    C14供电设备的维护保养情况历史事故分析、专家访谈7.99300.1604保留
    车辆的维护保养情况专家访谈、文献[27]7.66200.1833删除
    C15通信设备的维护保养情况专家访谈、文献[27]8.13300.1465保留
    航空器的维护保养情况专家访谈、文献[27]7.50200.1958删除
    环境风险C16气候条件文献[4,8,26-27]等8.70300.0955保留
    C17施工期间的航班流量专家访谈、文献[8,27]等8.56300.1076保留
    C18施工粉尘对机场的污染情况文献[26]、历史事故分析8.58300.1060保留
    C19施工对空管工作的影响专家访谈、文献[8]8.99300.0725保留
    C20施工对机组工作的影响历史事故分析、文献[8,24]等9.13300.0616保留
    C21施工对地勤工作的影响历史事故分析、文献[4]8.13300.1465保留
    C22施工对助航设备的破坏程度文献[26]、历史事故分析8.70300.0955保留
    C23施工对通信设备的破坏程度专家访谈、历史事故分析8.56300.1076保留
    C24施工对供电设备的破坏程度专家访谈、历史事故分析8.42300.1201保留
    管理风险C25机场不停航施工安全监管能力文献[2,27]9.42300.0411保留
    C26施工材料、杂物和垃圾管理的规范性文献[26]、历史事故分析8.83300.0857保留
    C27施工设备设施管理的规范性文献[1,4-5]等8.35300.1429保留
    C28施工人员进出场管理的规范性文献[1,4-5]等9.13300.0616保留
    C29不停航施工安全管理制度的科学性文献[2,4,25]等8.40300.1411保留
    不停航施工方案的质量文献[2,4]7.67100.1699删除
    C30不停航施工安全培训和宣贯情况专家访谈、文献[4,26-27]8.74300.0931保留
    C31不停航施工安全检查和监督情况文献[2,27]8.89300.0816保留
    C32不停航施工应急预案的科学性专家访谈、文献[27]7.72300.2051保留
    C33不停航施工情境空管保障程序的科学性文献[26]、专家访谈8.70300.0955保留
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  指标重要性等级、判断依据和熟悉程度量化值标准

    Table  2.   Quantitative value of indexes importance level, judgment basis and familiarity

    参数量化值参数量化值参数量化值
    重要性等级很重要8~10熟悉程度很熟悉0.8~1判断依据实践经验0.75~1
    重要6~8熟悉0.6~0.8理论分析0.5~0.75
    比较重要4~6比较熟悉0.4~0.6同行了解0.25~0.5
    一般重要2~4一般熟悉0.2~0.4直觉0~0.25
    不重要0~2不熟悉0~0.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  不停航施工情境下机场综合安全风险预警警级

    Table  3.   Airport comprehensive safety risk early warning level under circumstance of non-suspend air construction

    等级警级预警信号
    1无警绿色
    2轻警黄色
    3中警橘色
    4重警红色
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  不停航施工情境下机场安全风险正向预警指标警级标准

    Table  4.   Airport safety risk positive warning indexes alarm level standard under circumstance of non-suspend air construction

    指标无警[1-3)轻警[3-5)中警[5-7)重警[7-9]
    C17较小一般较大
    C18基本无污染污染较小污染一般污染较大
    C19基本无影响影响较小影响一般影响较大
    C20基本无影响影响较小影响一般影响较大
    C21基本无影响影响较小影响一般影响较大
    C22未破坏轻微破坏一般破坏破坏较大
    C23未破坏轻微破坏一般破坏破坏较大
    C24未破坏轻微破坏一般破坏破坏较大
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  不停航施工情境下机场安全风险负向预警指标警级标准

    Table  5.   Airport safety risk negative warning indexes alarm level standard under circumstance of non-suspend air construction

    指标重警[1-3)中警[3-5)轻警[5-7)无警[7-9]
    C1较差一般较好很好
    C2较差一般较好很好
    C3较差一般较好很好
    C4没有或有较
    少的不停航施
    工飞行经验
    不停航施工
    飞行经验一般
    有较丰富的
    不停航施工
    飞行经验
    有丰富的不
    停航施工情境
    飞行经验
    C5较差一般较好很好
    C6较差一般较好很好
    C7没有或较少
    的不停航施工
    经验
    不停航施工
    经验一般
    有较丰富的
    不停航施工
    经验
    有丰富的不
    停航施工经验
    C8不够清晰清晰度一般较清晰清晰
    C9不够清晰清晰度一般较清晰清晰
    C10不够合理基本合理较合理合理
    C11不够合规基本合规较合规合规
    C12不够清晰清晰度一般较清晰清晰
    C13基本不满足要求离要求有差距基本满足要求满足要求
    C14基本不满足要求离要求有差距基本满足要求满足要求
    C15基本不满足要求离要求有差距基本满足要求满足要求
    C16较差一般较好很好
    C25较差一般较好很好
    C26不够规范规范度一般较规范规范
    C27不够规范规范度一般较规范规范
    C28不够规范规范度一般较规范规范
    C29不够规范规范度一般较规范规范
    C30较差一般较好很好
    C31较差一般较好很好
    C32不够科学基本科学较科学科学
    C33不够科学基本科学较科学科学
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  33个指标的常权权重和10个样本机场的动态权权重

    Table  6.   Constant weight of 33 indexes and 10 sample airport dynamic weight

    指标常权
    权重
    动态权权重
    样本1样本2样本3样本4样本5样本6样本7样本8样本9样本10
    C10.03200.02870.03130.03020.03170.03020.03240.03170.03100.03310.0331
    C20.05750.10390.05630.05430.05690.05690.05800.06090.05570.05640.0591
    C30.05350.04800.05230.05050.05290.05050.05140.05620.05180.05250.0524
    C40.04710.04230.04610.04450.04660.04450.04530.04720.04920.04620.0462
    C50.04030.03620.03950.04200.03990.03810.04010.04020.03900.03960.0395
    C60.02380.02180.02330.02290.02400.02250.02340.02340.02350.02380.0234
    C70.02020.02320.02660.02560.02560.02440.02490.02490.02500.02540.0253
    C80.03820.03420.03850.05730.03770.03600.03670.03790.03690.04110.0410
    C90.02950.02650.02960.03990.02920.03990.02980.02920.02860.02970.0290
    C100.03640.03260.03560.03430.03700.05340.03500.03720.03630.03670.0367
    C110.03520.03150.03440.03320.03580.03320.03480.03490.03400.03450.0345
    C120.02800.02510.02740.02640.02840.02640.02760.02830.02710.02810.0275
    C130.01980.01780.01940.01900.01960.01930.01970.01940.01950.01940.0197
    C140.01840.01650.01800.01730.01820.01780.01850.01850.01780.01800.0180
    C150.01950.01740.01900.01860.01920.01830.01960.01970.01910.01910.0191
    C160.02580.02370.03460.02440.02610.02490.02540.02600.02500.02530.0259
    C170.02270.02170.02340.02670.02360.02140.02180.02190.02200.02230.0230
    C180.02320.02150.02270.02190.02300.02190.02860.02360.02250.02280.0240
    C190.03350.03250.03280.03160.03320.03160.03230.03230.04640.03290.0329
    C200.04410.06330.04320.04600.04360.04160.04240.04250.04270.04330.0433
    C210.01880.01780.01890.01780.01860.01780.01860.01810.01820.02260.0185
    C220.02540.02990.02490.02400.02520.02400.02450.02450.02460.02490.0249
    C230.02230.02110.02190.02110.02210.02110.02260.02220.02160.02190.0219
    C240.02170.02040.02120.02040.02140.02040.02190.02190.02100.02120.0219
    C250.05040.04910.04930.04760.04990.05380.05050.04860.04880.04950.0494
    C260.02740.02510.02680.02580.02710.02700.02750.02640.02710.02680.0268
    C270.02070.01890.02020.01980.02050.02020.02090.02060.02110.02030.0203
    C280.04300.03990.04210.04200.04250.04510.04590.04450.04620.04220.0437
    C290.02110.01920.02060.01990.02090.02030.02100.02070.02040.02110.0210
    C300.02640.02420.02580.02540.02610.02600.02710.02540.02550.02640.0259
    C310.03090.02770.03020.02920.03060.03070.03050.02980.03070.03110.0303
    C320.01800.01620.01840.01700.01860.01700.01760.01740.01770.01770.0177
    C330.02480.02220.02570.02340.02450.02380.02380.02390.02400.02430.0243
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  基于动态权和物元可拓分析法的预警结果

    Table  7.   Early warning results based on dynamic weight and matter-element extension method

    样本各预警等级的贴近度贴近度
    最大值
    特征值预警
    等级
    警级预警
    信号
    j=1j=2j=3j=4
    样本10.07430.09450.01650.10440.10442.52694重警红色
    样本20.10480.04110.02210.01730.10481.28751无警绿色
    样本30.07740.07390.02100.04860.07741.99111无警绿色
    样本40.11310.07560.00930.01280.11311.44211无警绿色
    样本50.12250.06290.04940.05890.12251.43551无警绿色
    样本60.07510.16090.06600.02490.16091.96012轻警黄色
    样本70.05410.15060.01910.01250.15061.81212轻警黄色
    样本80.10440.08690.03360.03280.10441.44071无警绿色
    样本90.13370.09850.02050.02250.13371.43501无警绿色
    样本100.34700.11990.02050.03470.34701.32262轻警黄色
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  基于动态权物元可拓分析法的预警结果与其他方法对比

    Table  8.   Comparison of early warning results based on dynamic weight and matter-element extension method with other methods

    样本动态权物元可拓常权物元可拓模糊综合评价
    预警
    等级
    警级预警
    等级
    警级预警
    等级
    警级
    样本14重警2轻警2轻警
    样本21无警1无警1无警
    样本31无警1无警1无警
    样本41无警1无警1无警
    样本51无警1无警1无警
    样本62轻警2轻警2轻警
    样本72轻警2轻警2轻警
    样本81无警1无警1无警
    样本91无警1无警1无警
    样本102轻警2轻警2轻警
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-11-24
  • 录用日期:  2022-03-20
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-11
  • 整期出版日期:  2023-04-30

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