基于双价值驱动的到港旅客动力学模型

邢志伟; 阚犇; 朱书杰; 刘子硕; 李彪; 罗谦

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.1019

基于双价值驱动的到港旅客动力学模型

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2022.1019

邢志伟^1, ,,
阚犇¹,
朱书杰¹,
刘子硕¹,
李彪¹,
罗谦²

1.
中国民航大学电子信息与自动化学院，天津 300300
2.
中国民航局第二研究所工程技术研究中心，成都 610041

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1601200)

详细信息

通讯作者:
E-mail：cauc_xzw@163.com

中图分类号: TP391.9
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- PDF下载量: 17
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-29
- 录用日期: 2023-04-07
- 网络出版日期: 2023-05-08
- 整期出版日期: 2024-12-31

A dynamic model of arriving passengers based on dual value driving

1.
School of Electronic Information and Automation，Civil Aviation University of China，Tianjin 300300，China
2.
Engineering Technology Research Centre，The Second Research Institute of Civil Aviation Administration of China，Chengdu 610041，China

Funds: National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFB1601200)

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail：cauc_xzw@163.com

摘要

摘要:
为优化综合交通枢纽服务流程，分析了到港旅客聚集行为动力学特性，研究了到港旅客聚集行为在逆伽马分布、伽马分布与卡方分布时间维度间的转变机制，揭示了聚集行为受航班运行时间与换乘方式效用共同影响，并分别转化为到港旅客时间价值与效用价值。在此基础上，基于逆伽马分布、伽马分布与卡方分布建立了双价值驱动的到港旅客动力学模型，输出为参数可调的到港旅客分布。结果表明：参数可调的仿真输出与真实分布相吻合，为枢纽机场到港旅客分布态势的精准预测提供了方法和依据。
- 人类动力学 /
- 到港旅客 /
- 伽马分布 /
- 时间价值函数 /
- 效用价值函数
Abstract:
In order to optimize the service process of the integrated transportation hub, the dynamic characteristics of the aggregation behavior of arriving passengers were analyzed. The transition mechanism of arriving passenger aggregation behavior between inverse gamma distribution, gamma distribution, and chi-square distribution was studied. It revealed that this aggregation behavior was affected by the flight operation time and transfer mode utility, which was converted into the time value and utility value of arriving passengers, respectively. On this basis, a dynamic model of arriving passengers driven by the dual values was established based on these three distributions, and the output was the distribution of arriving passengers with adjustable parameters. The results show that the simulation output with adjustable parameters is consistent with the real distribution, which provides a method and basis for accurate prediction of the distribution situation of arriving passengers at the airport.
- human dynamics /
- arriving passengers /
- gamma distribution /
- time value function /
- utility value function

HTML全文

图 1 航班平均到达班次与可供应停机位数量的比值

Figure 1. Ratio of average flight arrivals to the number of available parking spaces

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 不同时段内某区间统计到达口旅客分布

Figure 2. Distribution of passengers at arrival gate in a certain interval from different time

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 不同时段内某区间统计到达口旅客仿真输出

Figure 3. Simulation output of passengers at arrival gate in a certain interval from different time

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 到港航班信息

Table 1. Arrival flight information

航班	到港时间	上轮挡时间	开舱门时间	机位	到港人数	总行李数
1	9:00:00	9:04:00	9:12:20	202	110	52
2	9:07:00	9:10:00	9:13:52	206	173	59
3	9:10:00	9:15:00	9:16:40	202	70	28
$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$	$\vdots$

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 到达口旅客人数

Table 2. Number of passengers at the arrival gate

调查点位		人数
时刻	时段	旅客出口A	旅客出口C
8:10	0～5 min	151	41
	5～10 min	183	68
	10～15 min	68	114
16:30	0～5 min	121	76
	5～10 min	273	132
	10～15 min	179	37
18:00	0～5 min	25	116
	5～10 min	63	92
	10～15 min	100	40

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 到港旅客分布拟合参数及拟合度检验

Table 3. Arriving passenger distribution fitting parameters and fit test

时段	卡方分布		伽马分布			逆伽马分布
时段	$\nu$	R²	$\alpha$	$\beta$	R²	$\alpha$	$\beta$	R²
6:00-9:59	5.544	0.680	1.985	3.644	0.672	1.981	10.102	0.869
10:00-17:59	10.136	0.527	3.564	3.192	0.810	1.746	16.273	0.499
18:00-23:59	7.882	0.786	2.708	3.346	0.676	1.873	12.524	0.637

下载: 导出CSV

表 4 时间价值驱动的各参数

Table 4. Parameter driven by the time value

时间感知数值		行李总数均值		$B$
${V_{{\text{APTV}}}}$	${b_{\text{1}}}$	$L$	${b_{\text{2}}}$	$B$
0.9163	0.8602	1.0998	0.6344	3.039

下载: 导出CSV

表 5 效用价值驱动的各参数

Table 5. Parameter driven by the utility value

出行方式	费用		时间		舒适度		$\xi$	$A$
出行方式	${a_{\text{1}}}$	$M$	${a_{\text{2}}}$	$T$	${a_{\text{3}}}$	$C$	$\xi$	$A$
私人交通	0.1	1	0.45	0.5	0.45	1	1	3.653
公共交通	0.8	0.5	0.1	1	0.1	0.5	0.5	3.653

下载: 导出CSV

表 6 不同分布的仿真拟合与实际拟合的差异程度

Table 6. Degree of difference between simulation fitting and distribution actual fitting of different distributions

评价指标	伽马分布	逆伽马分布	卡方分布
KLD	0.337	0.443	0.257

下载: 导出CSV

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