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基于MC-GERT的舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析

郭放 韩维 刘玉杰 苏析超 白天 刘纯

胡必云, 李舟军, 王君, 等 . 评分偏差对于推荐质量的影响[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2012, 38(6): 823-828.
引用本文: 郭放,韩维,刘玉杰,等. 基于MC-GERT的舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报,2025,51(3):795-805 doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0129
Hu Biyun, Li Zhoujun, Wang Jun, et al. Effect of rating residual on recommendation quality[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012, 38(6): 823-828. (in Chinese)
Citation: GUO F,HAN W,LIU Y J,et al. Time uncertainty analysis on cyclic operation procedures of carrier aircraft based on MC-GERT[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2025,51(3):795-805 (in Chinese) doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0129

基于MC-GERT的舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0129
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(62003366)
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    E-mail:suxich@126.com

  • 中图分类号: V271.4;V355.2

Time uncertainty analysis on cyclic operation procedures of carrier aircraft based on MC-GERT

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (62003366)
More Information
  • 摘要:

    舰载机出动回收作业完成时间通常呈现较大的不确定性,直接影响航母任务规划人员对舰载机后续任务方案的制定。为确定舰载机出动回收作业流程完成时间的分布规律,辅助规划人员掌控舰载机任务执行进度,提出舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析方法。基于舰载机出动回收作业流程,建立舰载机出动回收作业流程随机网络模型;提出以Laplace变换为传递函数的图示评审技术网络,对其传递函数特性进行研究,证明了舰载机出动回收作业流程随机网络模型可以运用信号流图理论进行求解,并引入蒙特卡罗方法用于求解随机网络中带有“与”型节点关系的并联支路简化及提升网络求解的运算效率。基于结合蒙特卡罗的图示评审技术(MC-GERT)方法,分别对舰载机飞行前准备作业、出动离场作业、波次出动离场作业及循环作业模式下的周期作业的完成时间的分布特性进行分析,验证了所提方法的可行性,表明该方法能够应用于对舰载机出动回收作业规划方案进行在线分析,为舰载机作业规划相关部门提供一定的方案执行预期。

     

  • 图 1  舰载机连续出动及其循环作业示意图

    Figure 1.  Schematic diagram of continuous sortie and cyclic operations of carrier aircraft

    图 2  舰载机循环作业GERT模型

    Figure 2.  GERT model for cyclic operations of carrier aircraft

    图 3  飞行前准备作业GERT模型

    Figure 3.  GERT model of pre-flight preparations

    图 4  出动离场作业GERT模型

    Figure 4.  GERT model of sortie and departure

    图 5  通用概率分支

    Figure 5.  Generic probabilistic branch

    图 6  串联概率分支简化

    Figure 6.  Reduction of probabilistic branches in series

    图 7  具有“异或”型节点关系的并联分支

    Figure 7.  Parallel branches with “exclusive or” relationship

    图 8  具有“与”型节点关系的并联概率分支

    Figure 8.  Probabilistic branches in parallel with “and” relationship

    图 9  自环结构的简化

    Figure 9.  Reduction of self-loop structure

    图 10  舰载机飞行前准备作业完成时间概率密度分布

    Figure 10.  Probability density distribution of completion time for pre-flight preparations of carrier aircraft

    图 11  舰载机出动离场作业完成时间概率密度分布

    Figure 11.  Probability density distribution of completion time for departure of carrier aircraft

    图 12  3架舰载机出动离场作业GERT模型

    Figure 12.  GERT model for launching three carrier aircraft

    图 13  3架舰载机出动离场作业完成时间概率密度分布

    Figure 13.  Probability density distribution of completion time for launching three carrier aircraft

    图 14  波次1完成两周期作业耗时概率密度分布

    Figure 14.  Probability density distribution of time spent for completing two cyclic operations within wave 1

    图 15  不同战损概率条件下波次1完成两周期作业耗时概率密度分布

    Figure 15.  Probability density distribution of time spent for completing two cyclic operations within wave 1 under different battle damage probability conditions

    表  1  GERT网络节点类别

    Table  1.   Taxonomy of nodes in GERT network

    输出端 输入端
    “异或”型 “或”型 “与”型
    概率型
    肯定型
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  舰载机出动回收流程作业数据

    Table  2.   Data of cyclic operations of carrier aircraft

    作业
    编号
    作业名称 概率 作业完成时间分布
    牵引入位 1 112[(u2t6)(8.5t)]
    系留 1 2
    机械检查 1 12(4u6u4)(8t)
    充氧 1 (u4u2)(t4)+(u2u6)(61)
    充氮 0.5 (u4u2)(t4)+(u2u6)(61)
    0.5 0
    维修 0.1 114(u6zt0)
    0.9 0
    加油 1 150[(z20z20)(t20)]
    挂载 1 14(t10t21)(t19)
    惯导对准 1 (u4u0)
    暖机自检 1 2
    更换备份机 0.03 (μ1μ2)
    滑行入位 0.97 12(u1t4)
    准备位等待 1 (u0.3u0.8)(8t2.4)
    离场 1 0.2
    编队空中作业 1 N(120,6)
    编队着舰作业 1 118(u6uti)(12t)
    编队战损维修 0.3 (u15u20)(t15)/50+(u20u35)(35t)/150
    0.7 0
    编队飞行前准备作业 1
    编队出动离场 1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  波次1两周期作业完成时间分布特性

    Table  3.   Distribution characteristics of completion time for completing two cyclic operations within wave 1

    战损概率 均值/min 标准差/min 峰度 偏度
    0.0 538 22.08 1.87 0.59
    0.1 543 26.22 1.43 0.79
    0.2 548 19.14 0.71 0.7
    0.3 553 31.1 0.24 0.56
    0.4 557 32.28 −0.01 0.41
    0.5 562 32.78 −0.13 0.26
    0.6 567 32.38 −0.06 0.13
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2023-03-15
  • 录用日期:  2023-04-23
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-06-28
  • 整期出版日期:  2025-03-27

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