基于多毁伤等级标准的导弹毁伤效能贝叶斯鉴定试验设计

陈童; 刘昊邦; 胡涛

doi:10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0282

基于多毁伤等级标准的导弹毁伤效能贝叶斯鉴定试验设计

doi: 10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0282

海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系，武汉 430033

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(71501183)

详细信息

通讯作者:
E-mail：D23181102@nue.edu.cn

中图分类号: E917
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-05-25
- 录用日期: 2023-08-11
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-11
- 整期出版日期: 2025-05-31

Bayesian identification test design of missile damage effectiveness based on multiple damage grades standards

Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics，Naval University of Engineering，Wuhan 430033，China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China (71501183）

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail：D23181102@nue.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
导弹毁伤效能合格是充分发挥战斗力的重要保障，为检验导弹毁伤效能是否达标，开展毁伤效能鉴定试验研究尤为必要。针对现有“单发毁伤概率”毁伤效能定量表征指标依据单一毁伤标准难以全面描述导弹毁伤效能的局限性，考虑单枚导弹打击目标形成的不同毁伤等级结果，以不同毁伤等级结果发生概率表征毁伤效能，从多毁伤等级标准角度进行导弹鉴定，有利于全面检验导弹毁伤效能。并且为克服小样本导弹整装试验信息不足难题，在鉴定试验设计中利用贝叶斯方法结合体系贡献度融合多源先验信息，提出信息利用充分、双方风险可控的试验方法。研究结果表明：相比单一毁伤标准定量表征指标，所提方法能够全面描述导弹毁伤效能，并与改进后的二项分布假设检验法进行对比，验证了所提方法的优越性。
- 导弹毁伤效能 /
- 鉴定试验 /
- 多毁伤等级标准 /
- 体系贡献度 /
- 贝叶斯
Abstract:
Qualified missile damage effectiveness is an important guarantee to give full play to combat effectiveness. The damage effectiveness identification test research is especially important to determine whether the missile damage effectiveness is up to par. In view of the limitations of the existing damage effectiveness quantitative characterization index of "single-shot damage probability", it is difficult to fully describe the missile's damage effectiveness based on a single damage standard. The damage effectiveness is represented by the probability of occurrence of different damage grade results, taking into account the results of multiple damage grades created by a single missile striking the target. The missile damage effectiveness is identified from the perspective of multiple damage grade standards, which are helpful for a thorough examination of the missile damage effectiveness. In addition, in order to overcome the problem of insufficient information on small sample missile assembly tests, the Bayesian method is used to fuse multiple sources of prior information with the system contribution in the design of identification tests, and the test schemes with sufficient information utilization and controllable risk of both parties are designed. The example shows that compared with the quantitative characterization index of a single damage standard, this research describes the missile damage effectiveness more comprehensively, and compares it with the improved binomial distribution hypothesis test method, which verifies the superiority of this method.
- missile damage effectiveness /
- identification test /
- multiple damage grades standards /
- system contribution /
- Bayesian

HTML全文

给定 $n=15$ 双方风险随 ${m_i}$ 的变化情况

Given the variation of risk of both parties in $n=15$ with respect to ${m_i}$

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

给定 $m_i^ *$ 双方风险随 $n$ 的变化情况

Given the variation of risk of both parties in $m_i^ *$ with respect to $n$

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 目标毁伤效果等级划分

Table 1. Classification of target damage effect

目标毁伤等级	毁伤情况
零毁伤	目标轻微受损或无损伤，作战效能损失在5%以内
轻度毁伤	目标性能受到轻度损失，如果不及时进行修理，会影响作战性能，作战效能损失5%～20%
中度毁伤	目标损伤较为严重，需要换件修理，作战效能损失20%～50%
重度毁伤	目标严重受损，需要返厂大修，且修理耗时较长，作战效能损失50%～80%
摧毁歼灭	目标完全摧毁，且无法修复，作战效能损失在80%以上

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表 2 导弹毁伤效能鉴定试验参数

Table 2. Missile damage effectiveness identification test parameters

毁伤等级标准	方法1鉴定试验参数 ${p_i}({p_i}^{'})$	方法2鉴定试验参数 ${p_{\alpha_i}}={p_{\beta_i}}$	专家知识信息先验分布 ${\text{B}}\left( {{a_1},{b_1}} \right)$	仿真试验信息先验分布 ${\text{B}}\left( {{a_2},{b_2}} \right)$
轻度毁伤标准	0.9 (0.8)	0.9	$\left( {4,0.5} \right)$	$\left( {4.5,0.5} \right)$
中度毁伤标准	0.7 (0.6)	0.7	$\left( {3,1.5} \right)$	$\left( {3.5,1} \right)$
重度毁伤标准	0.4 (0.3)	0.4	$\left( {2.5,3.5} \right)$	$\left( {1.5,2.5} \right)$
摧毁歼灭标准	0.2 (0.1)	0.2	$\left( {1.5,4.5} \right)$	$\left( {1,3.5} \right)$

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表 3 先验信息专家隶属度打分

Table 3. Prior information expert membership rating

专家序号	可靠隶属度 $\omega _{{\delta _j}}^d$		不可靠隶属度 $\upsilon _{{\delta _j}}^d$
专家序号	专家知识信息 ${\delta _1}$	仿真试验信息 ${\delta _2}$	专家知识信息 ${\delta _1}$	仿真试验信息 ${\delta _2}$
1	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4
2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.2
3	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.4
4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3
5	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4

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给定 $n=15$ 鉴定试验方案

Given $n=15$ identification test scheme

毁伤等级标准	$m_i^ *$ 取值	$m_i^ *$ 最优值
轻度毁伤标准	1	1
中度毁伤标准	4,5	5
重度毁伤标准	7,8,9	9
摧毁歼灭标准	9,10,11,12,13,14	12

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给定 $m_i^ *$ 鉴定试验方案

Given $m_i^ *$ identification test scheme

毁伤等级标准	$m_i^ *$	$n$ 取值	$n$ 最优值
轻度毁伤标准	2	19,20,21,22,23	21
中度毁伤标准	5	19	19
重度毁伤标准	9	15,16,17,18,19	16
摧毁歼灭标准	12	15,16,17,18	16

下载: 导出CSV

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