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摘要:
在强对抗和不完备信息环境下获取较为准确的杀伤效能是反舰弹道导弹作战运用研究的重难点。基于此，提出迭代减少反舰弹道导弹杀伤效能不确定性的研究方法。建立杀伤效能评估的仿真模型；采用信度分布函数刻画影响因素的不确定性；基于仿真模型计算杀伤效能的信度分布函数；利用信度熵分析每个因素对杀伤效能不确定性的全局影响度。通过针对性减少关键因素的不确定性，高效减少杀伤效能的不确定性。在示例中，杀伤概率不确定范围由0.2～0.6缩小至0.41～0.50。所提方法为作战效能评估提供了一种新的思路。
Abstract:The focus and challenge of research on the operational application of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) is how to achieve a more accurate kill effectiveness in a highly adversarial and information-incomplete environment. A research framework designed to iteratively reduce the uncertainty of ASBM kill effectiveness is proposed. A simulation model for the evaluation of kill efficiency is established. The uncertainty (unknowns) of influencing factors is characterized by belief degree distribution functions. The belief degree distribution function of kill efficiency is computed based on the simulation model. Additionally, belief entropy is used to examine the global impact measure on the indeterminacy of kill efficiency caused by each element. In the example provided, the unknown range of kill probability is reduced from 0.2～0.6 to 0.41～0.5. The proposed method provides a new way of thinking for the evaluation of the operational effectiveness of military equipment.
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图 3 反舰弹道导弹作战效能影响因素关系
Figure 3. Relationship of factors influencing kill effectiveness of anti-ship ballistic missiles
图 5 反舰弹道导弹打击目标仿真模型流程
Figure 5. Flow of simulation model of anti-ship ballistic missile striking target
图 6 10枚反舰弹道导弹随机打击敌舰的仿真结果
Figure 6. Simulated results of 10 anti-ship ballistic missiles randomly striking enemy ship
图 7 R、CEP、Pk、Pe、Pd的信度分布函数
Figure 7. Belief degree distribution function of R, CEP, Pk, Pe, Pd
图 9 Pd修正后的信度分布函数
Figure 9. Belief degree distribution function of Pd after modification
图 10 P第1次修正后的信度分布函数
Figure 10. Belief degree distribution function of P after the first modification
图 11 CEP修正后的信度分布函数
Figure 11. Belief degree distribution function of CEP after modification
图 12 P第2次修正的信度分布函数
Figure 12. Bbelief degree distribution function of P after the twice modification
图 13 $ P' $的2次修正的信度分布函数
Figure 13. Belief degree distribution function of $ P' $ after the twice modification
表 1 R、 CEP、 Pk、 Pe、Pd的信度分布
Table 1. Belief degree distribution of R, CEP, Pk, Pe, Pd
信度 R/km CEP/km Pk Pe Pd 0 20 20 0 0.09 0 0.1 22 23 0.06 0.79 0.45 0.2 24 26 0.13 0.80 0.48 0.3 26 29 0.22 0.81 0.50 0.4 28 32 0.31 0.82 0.51 0.5 30 35 0.42 0.83 0.53 0.6 32 38 0.54 0.84 0.54 0.7 34 41 0.66 0.85 0.56 0.8 36 44 0.76 0.86 0.57 0.9 38 50 0.88 0.87 0.61 1.0 40 60 1 1 0.88 
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