Overbooking Risk of Civil Aviation Transportation
-
摘要: 对航空客运超售风险管理进行了研究.在分析航空客运风险处理措施基础上,提出采用风险价值(VaR)方法进行超售风险管理.给出了单航班不同舱位超售量的计算方法及多航班VaR值的计算方法.实例表明VaR方法在航空客运风险管理中是十分有效的.Abstract: Based on the experiences of managing risks of civil aviation companies, a Value at Risk (VaR) procedure was proposed to control overbooking risk.The calculation method of extra number of single-line and the representation of VaR of multi-line were given respectively. One whole company's VaR in a day was obtained from analyzing the relativity of return about different flights. Finally, an example on the risk analysis of one scheduled flight from Beijing to Hongkong was given to demonstrate the feasibility of VaR in the risk management of civil aviation transportation.
-
Key words:
- air transportation /
- risk /
- decisions /
- value at risk
-
[1] 万圣锋,张朋柱,李鸿可.企业资金运营风险管理研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,16(4):36~41. [2]刘 军.航空客运收益管理与风险决策理论及其应用研究 .北京:北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,2000. [3]杨思梁.最盈利的管理方法——论收益管理[M].北京:航空工业出版社,2000. [4]陈 武,杨家本.采购过程风险管理[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,16(6):54~59. [5]范 英. VaR方法及其在股市风险分析中的应用初探[J].中国管理科学,2000,8(3):26~32.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 2920
- HTML全文浏览量: 142
- PDF下载量: 1075
- 被引次数: 0